> up from the company’s last private valuation of $730 million
typo
4k0hz · 2026-06-25 23:05:41 UTC
For now.. ;)
cdrnsf · 2026-06-25 21:36:47 UTC
> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges.
SpaceX's stock volatile? It's a shame nobody saw that coming.
echelon · 2026-06-25 23:10:43 UTC
Is it still being prematurely included in the major index funds?
winfredJa · 2026-06-25 23:15:25 UTC
yes, in few weeks.unfortunately the stock will be back from this slump
androiddrew · 2026-06-25 23:19:31 UTC
Ummm probably not. Lock ups are going to dump far more stock into the market.
kurthr · 2026-06-25 23:36:40 UTC
But they are going to coincide lockups with the release of additional stock float from 5% up to 20% of the total "valuation" with a 3x QQQ multiplier so that stock indexes will treat them as 60% float even though 2/3rds of those shares are unavailable. Thus they guarantee that even more shares must be bought by tracking ETFs and institutional buyers. Everybody (that already owns pre-IPO shares) wins!
kirubakaran · 2026-06-26 00:01:32 UTC
But that's not a secret, and therefore already priced in, right?
JumpCrisscross · 2026-06-26 02:34:06 UTC
It's also a tiny effect given the total-market funds buy small amounts of each company, and the NASDAQ 100 isn't particularly big.
If S&P had changed its rules for the S&P 500, there would have been an effect. In the end, the drama was almost entirely a spectacle for finance influencers and their viewers.
kurthr · 2026-06-27 04:54:25 UTC
QQQ is the largest of the Nasdaq100 tracking funds. It's only about 1%, increasing to 4% of the QQQ, which is ~$350B in size.
So it's only $3.5B of forced buying or a little less that 5% (of $75B).
For the second float would be and additional ~$14B, again about 5%.
opinion-is-bad · 2026-06-25 23:54:49 UTC
Only the Nasdaq, which is an intentionally aggressive index. The S&P rejected all proposals.
HerbManic · 2026-06-26 00:01:44 UTC
Launched in the same way they launch Starship, full of ambition, promising a bit too much, but might explode at any moment. Either way it will be a spectacular show regardless of what happen.
scottyah · 2026-06-26 00:26:48 UTC
Yes, it's actually the first volatile high-profile IPO so you can see why some people need to be reminded of the possibility.
tough · 2026-06-27 05:09:25 UTC
I didn't partake but from elon's shenanigans with bitcoin and doge (the coin, not the govt thing) it seemed clear he'd do similar with the stock
is tesla stock not volatile too? elon stock's are more like today's crypto than a 20th's century company stock w dividends
scottyah · 2026-06-27 23:30:38 UTC
People have trouble pricing it because they do actual new engineering and don't spend time and money making the stock price wherever they want it. All the other F500s are owned by the same few companies and all the board members are the same.
Wall Street has never understood engineering. Eventually Tesla will pull a Boeing, GE, Ford, etc- lose the founder of founder's influence, get taken over by suits, and slowly die but hang on by playing the financial games.
cma · 2026-06-29 08:46:05 UTC
> and slowly die but hang on by playing the financial games.
There have been plenty of those, like SpaceX buying Solar City bonds then when they were going to go bad he used Tesla to bail them out.
scottyah · 2026-06-29 16:41:09 UTC
There's definitely been a lot of "creativity" in Musk's companies. I'm honestly a bit surprised that any could go public. I thought there'd be too many skeletons in the closet, but glad things worked out/weren't that bad.
JumpCrisscross · 2026-06-26 02:32:53 UTC
> shame nobody saw that coming
Seeing something coming is very different from having it not only confirmed but also quantified.
tim333 · 2026-06-26 07:33:20 UTC
It's actually remained about 14% or more above the IPO price which is roughly what you'd want but gone up and down a bit.
It's funny with stock prices - they all go up and down a bit in kind of random ways but people project all sorts of stories onto them that often don't relate much to reality.
roxolotl · 2026-06-26 07:41:28 UTC
It peaked at around +60% from IPO price and swung daily around 10-15%. It’s possible it’s starting to stabilize but that first week was basically the definition of volatile.
ambicapter · 2026-06-26 13:53:17 UTC
Just googling the ticker shows it at 149, which is below its opening.
lelanthran · 2026-06-26 20:16:22 UTC
> Just googling the ticker shows it at 149, which is below its opening.
I thought it opened at 135.
tim333 · 2026-06-26 22:09:33 UTC
135 is what you could buy for in the public offering. The shares opened trading at 150.
dminik · 2026-06-25 21:54:37 UTC
> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges.
Surely if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about. Or is this an admission that the insane valuation for these companies is currently just bullshit?
JumpCrisscross · 2026-06-25 22:18:32 UTC
> if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about
Not really. Plenty of solid companies have to wring their hands around IPO timing based on market conditions. Sometimes, this is due to valuation multiples. Sometimes it's due to fads, e.g. investors preferring capital-structure efficiency versus low leverage.
dminik · 2026-06-25 22:43:23 UTC
I mean, my comment wasn't necessarily meant to be some insightful analysis. But I do find it weird that OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week.
JumpCrisscross · 2026-06-25 22:57:23 UTC
> OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week
When was the last time someone seriously asked if OpenAI was going to go public before Anthropic? For me, it's been at least months, maybe closer to a year. The corporate-governance complexity drove half of that, momentum the other half, and messaging from both companies having been consistent with that timeline for months sealed the deal.
dminik · 2026-06-26 07:16:39 UTC
I mean, they did the "confidential S1 filing" thing a few days apart.
That was less than a month ago. They seemed to be on a similar pace at least from my point of view.
koolala · 2026-06-25 22:12:28 UTC
Maybe they want a Mythos level model first.
wmf · 2026-06-25 22:20:51 UTC
Good news: GPT-5.6 has been export restricted.
koolala · 2026-06-25 22:31:57 UTC
Where are the anecdotes about it hacking the NSA though?
wmf · 2026-06-25 22:36:06 UTC
It's not even out yet. Give it a second.
koolala · 2026-06-26 06:01:14 UTC
They need to do something new like create a more efficient battery formula out of recyclable abundant components. Hydrogen + Oxygen and Water are a good abundant recyclable example but also so is Gravity. Nightly / seasonal / long term energy storage needs another compact and efficient solution as elegant as these but better. (saying superconductors is cheating)
tristanj · 2026-06-25 23:53:44 UTC
This is patently false, don't spread rumors. Voluntarily delaying release at the request of the government is not the same as imposing export controls.
3eb7988a1663 · 2026-06-26 00:02:53 UTC
I hesitate to call anything "voluntary" when a competitor company was declared a domestic supply chain risk for refusing to do everything the administration requested.
itemize123 · 2026-06-26 01:33:31 UTC
I would categorize the op as "technically false" but
if they don't voluntarily delay, they would be export controlled.
koolala · 2026-06-26 07:11:54 UTC
Like being export controlled if you don't track everyone's identities is a form of imposing export restrictions. That is a true statement.
iwontberude · 2026-06-26 16:44:39 UTC
By saying it’s false you are also spreading a rumor that OpenAI is goated by us defense. The reality is we don’t know the truth. But since we are spouting off rumors: Government could have given them a national security letter that says, “send all of your prompts and response data to a mirror run by NSA”
Taronar · 2026-06-26 19:17:44 UTC
What? the gov decides who does and who does not get it... i.e restricts who has access.
7734128 · 2026-06-26 20:12:23 UTC
Why do you say "voluntary"?
cmiles8 · 2026-06-25 22:19:38 UTC
The window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there.
The best option at this point is kick the can down the road and hope market sentiment improves next year. Not much signal that it will, and quite a lot of signal the sentiment only declines, but pumping the brakes is the least worst option on the table.
JumpCrisscross · 2026-06-25 22:20:23 UTC
> window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there
Unless Anthropic also cancels its IPO, this probably isn't it.
cmiles8 · 2026-06-25 22:24:11 UTC
The math doesn’t help Anthropic either but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked. That makes a huge difference when pitching an IPO.
wiiww · 2026-06-25 22:38:52 UTC
Agree but Anthropic momentum is fading too.
Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.
reilly3000 · 2026-06-25 23:12:05 UTC
How is momentum fading when their headline product is so good it’s illegal?
nemomarx · 2026-06-25 23:18:16 UTC
is no longer being able to sell it to half of your market good, financially?
andy99 · 2026-06-25 23:18:54 UTC
I think they may have overplayed their hand so to speak. The end consequence is that their best model isn’t available right now, people are exploring alternatives, and realizing they work fine.
It’s such a fast paced and competitive industry, anyone who takes even a short break is going to have a hard time coming back from it, and that’s basically what they’ve done.
derwiki · 2026-06-26 02:15:26 UTC
Thankfully, many tech companies have shortened parental leave to 6 weeks!
surgical_fire · 2026-06-25 23:23:09 UTC
That is a good marketing headline, but for it to work the model has to become available again in a reasonable timeframe.
Otherwise people try other cheaper models, and they find out those models work perfectly for what they need.
wiiww · 2026-06-25 23:31:01 UTC
Expected cash flows, growth and risk.
Go ahead and incorporate that in those 3 variables... lets see what you know before I bother replying.
jazzyjackson · 2026-06-25 23:52:50 UTC
How do you grow your business when your flagship product is illegal?
itemize123 · 2026-06-26 01:24:43 UTC
easy - lobbying
dgellow · 2026-06-26 08:35:04 UTC
Hasn’t worked for them so far
throw1234567891 · 2026-06-26 21:03:07 UTC
They don’t pay enough
rgrPlantner · 2026-06-26 00:47:22 UTC
Yeh local models will continue to gain performance before they can IPO
I only use free Gemini Pro to plan then scrape the log in Google Drive into local Qwen/Gemma+pi set up
I can plan and architect with Gemini on my phone or wherever and a cron job + custom JSON parser at home updates context in local model setup
lelanthran · 2026-06-26 18:41:16 UTC
> Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.
Ironic, considering that they got their ball rolling by taking from Open Source with neither credit nor attribution.
JumpCrisscross · 2026-06-25 22:42:28 UTC
> but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked
What are you basing this on? Both are currently doing rounds/tenders that are placing without problems.
The media treats these two differently, as do financial influencers. But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.
stymaar · 2026-06-25 23:57:43 UTC
> But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.
The finance market and the market for these products are two different things. Anthropic has definitely been stealing market share to OpenAI in the past few month on many segments (be it enterprise or even consumers).
itemize123 · 2026-06-26 01:24:03 UTC
it's not just media. or rather media is reporting based on fund interests.
JumpCrisscross · 2026-06-26 01:58:44 UTC
> media is reporting based on fund interests
Can you give an example that shows funds actually souring on OpenAI? (Like, not less enthusiastic than before. Actually souring. Selling.)
treis · 2026-06-26 00:12:50 UTC
ChatGPT is the 5th most visited website in the world and gets a ridiculous amount of user data. They're going to be an advertising powerhouse.
cmiles8 · 2026-06-26 00:18:40 UTC
The advertising angle is significantly overrated. Theres only so many ad dollars to go around and so every dollar they make they have to take from so other player like Google. With Google having decent AI search now for free OpenAI is already well behind here.
arealaccount · 2026-06-26 16:47:37 UTC
Users coming from Chat or Claude or the likes would be very high intent if done correctly, advertisers would pay a lot of money. I'm certain people would pull budget from Google.
cmiles8 · 2026-06-26 17:00:49 UTC
But Google has chat too now plus a ton more data about users OpenAI doesn’t have. There really isn’t anything OpenAI can do that Google isn’t also already doing.
mdjxnxnxnd · 2026-06-27 01:49:33 UTC
Honestly if ads start getting put into chats that service is dead to me
rgrPlantner · 2026-06-26 00:43:30 UTC
Useless stat without breakdown of time spent at the site and bot activity.
It will draw a non-zero number just curious people who never use ChatGPT.
And bots are exfiltrating model knowledge for the benefit of competition.
rchaud · 2026-06-26 01:11:23 UTC
There are only so many ad dollars to go around. ChatGPT getting traffic doesn't mean they can convince ad buyers that their dollar goes further than at established players like Google and Meta. AI search is a commodity at this point, even DuckDuckGo has it.
Reddit has been one of the world's top websites for over a decade, yet they are totally irrelevant in terms of ad product market share.
ipaddr · 2026-06-26 05:54:18 UTC
Because reddit users are low quality users. Meta and Google can peak into your data and segment you to sell.
ChatGPT ads are low quality placed at the bottom barely noticed.
ChatGPT ads will get better. Meta's social userbase is drying up. Google keeps introducing and removing things from chrome to keep access to spy on you for them alone. We'll see how things pan out but in ten more years reddit ads will still be worthless.
treis · 2026-06-26 15:39:14 UTC
I think a lot of money and effort is spent on advertising on reddit. It just goes to astroturfing instead of paying Reddit.
lelanthran · 2026-06-26 18:39:46 UTC
> Anthropic is seen as having momentum.
How can you tell that? "The Market" at the moment is the private investor market and, to my (admittedly untrained) eye, those two companies are being treated exactly the same when they raise.
arppacket · 2026-06-26 00:16:24 UTC
I doubt that anyone at OpenAI would let their payday decrease. If anything, they got assurances that everyone would keep the bubble going until 2028 no matter what.
bellowsgulch · 2026-06-26 18:16:28 UTC
> The business math just isn’t there.
What do you mean? I promise I'm not being facetious or satirical. I'm just too simple and conservative of an investor to understand this comment. (for example: Is the price-to-earnings ratio too high? I probably wouldn't want to invest in the business.)
lennessy · 2026-06-26 20:32:12 UTC
They are losing too much money. With open source options that are always close to frontier performance it will always be hard for them reduce training costs and charge premium rates.
bellowsgulch · 2026-06-27 09:16:34 UTC
I guess my point is that IPO timing is irrelevant if they don’t have an actual profitable business.
sschueller · 2026-06-26 21:18:23 UTC
There may never be another window. They will run out of money especially if open models catch up.
pier25 · 2026-06-27 03:01:07 UTC
They should have done it a year or two ago when the hype was strong.
Today everyone knows there's no agi coming up and it will be a very long time until they generate any profits, if ever.
sharadov · 2026-06-25 22:26:31 UTC
I was really hoping that they Ipoed this year, so we can see their stock shoot up and down in flames, and we're really done with them and Sam Altman, once and for all.
fragmede · 2026-06-25 23:28:46 UTC
While spcx has room to go up or down from where it is today, the reality is it that didn't drop like a rock on IPO day, so wall street bets vibes-based online "analysis" investing is only good for paper money.
outside1234 · 2026-06-26 00:14:11 UTC
The investment bankers were in there manipulating, but that's over, and gravity is here.
derwiki · 2026-06-26 02:19:49 UTC
It is funny to mention “gravity” in reference to company that makes rockets that escape gravity
ambicapter · 2026-06-26 13:54:58 UTC
It might even elicit a mild chuckle when you realize nothing "escapes" gravity. You might be thinking of escape velocity?
derwiki · 2026-06-26 18:54:21 UTC
Yup, fair enough!
dgellow · 2026-06-26 08:37:28 UTC
After the IPO Altman will be even more insanely rich, and that time in a more liquid manner. I don’t think he will go away
michelb · 2026-06-27 12:40:25 UTC
Why would Sam go? He has the political power of this administration on his side. Far more than Elon, who is working hard to get it back through SpaceX military contracts. Anthropic has very little political sway, which is why they are in trouble now. OpenAI might wait to see if this government will destroy Anthropic’s chances in the USA. Then Sam could become the only player.
int32_64 · 2026-06-25 22:34:23 UTC
AI exits in America probably have a political cliff approaching fast as populist backlash will hit them, or perhaps they see political winds favorable to regulatory capture in the future and are waiting for that?
JumpCrisscross · 2026-06-26 02:35:03 UTC
> AI exits in America probably have a political cliff approaching fast as populist backlash will hit them
The populist backlash is coming for datacenters. I'm unconvinced that's truly problematic to these companies given data travels close to the speed of light and plenty of countries have energy, data interconnects and governments unresponsive to locals' concerns.
kridsdale1 · 2026-06-27 00:26:51 UTC
This morning I heard a convincing argument that the data center backlash is only really significant in the USA because jobs here equal health care access. Europeans can afford to be less threatened existentially.
vrganj · 2026-06-27 09:52:13 UTC
Its also about pollution and water and similar concerns
cromka · 2026-06-29 05:12:04 UTC
If heck the weather maps for the past free days in Europe, you'll see why they won't get any popular here, either.
strangattractor · 2026-06-26 17:14:52 UTC
Data centers are the next Dark Fiber from 2000. After VCs and private Equity fund them there will not be sufficient demand because AI will inevitably not entirely live up to all the hype. The fire sale will eventually begin. Then Google, M$, Apple and Amazon will buy them at a discount just like Google snatched up the dark fiber after 2000.
Comments
typo
SpaceX's stock volatile? It's a shame nobody saw that coming.
If S&P had changed its rules for the S&P 500, there would have been an effect. In the end, the drama was almost entirely a spectacle for finance influencers and their viewers.
is tesla stock not volatile too? elon stock's are more like today's crypto than a 20th's century company stock w dividends
Wall Street has never understood engineering. Eventually Tesla will pull a Boeing, GE, Ford, etc- lose the founder of founder's influence, get taken over by suits, and slowly die but hang on by playing the financial games.
There have been plenty of those, like SpaceX buying Solar City bonds then when they were going to go bad he used Tesla to bail them out.
Seeing something coming is very different from having it not only confirmed but also quantified.
It's funny with stock prices - they all go up and down a bit in kind of random ways but people project all sorts of stories onto them that often don't relate much to reality.
I thought it opened at 135.
Surely if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about. Or is this an admission that the insane valuation for these companies is currently just bullshit?
Not really. Plenty of solid companies have to wring their hands around IPO timing based on market conditions. Sometimes, this is due to valuation multiples. Sometimes it's due to fads, e.g. investors preferring capital-structure efficiency versus low leverage.
When was the last time someone seriously asked if OpenAI was going to go public before Anthropic? For me, it's been at least months, maybe closer to a year. The corporate-governance complexity drove half of that, momentum the other half, and messaging from both companies having been consistent with that timeline for months sealed the deal.
Anthropic on 1st June: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec
OpenAI shortly before June 8: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/
That was less than a month ago. They seemed to be on a similar pace at least from my point of view.
The best option at this point is kick the can down the road and hope market sentiment improves next year. Not much signal that it will, and quite a lot of signal the sentiment only declines, but pumping the brakes is the least worst option on the table.
Unless Anthropic also cancels its IPO, this probably isn't it.
Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.
It’s such a fast paced and competitive industry, anyone who takes even a short break is going to have a hard time coming back from it, and that’s basically what they’ve done.
Otherwise people try other cheaper models, and they find out those models work perfectly for what they need.
Go ahead and incorporate that in those 3 variables... lets see what you know before I bother replying.
I only use free Gemini Pro to plan then scrape the log in Google Drive into local Qwen/Gemma+pi set up
I can plan and architect with Gemini on my phone or wherever and a cron job + custom JSON parser at home updates context in local model setup
Ironic, considering that they got their ball rolling by taking from Open Source with neither credit nor attribution.
What are you basing this on? Both are currently doing rounds/tenders that are placing without problems.
The media treats these two differently, as do financial influencers. But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.
The finance market and the market for these products are two different things. Anthropic has definitely been stealing market share to OpenAI in the past few month on many segments (be it enterprise or even consumers).
Can you give an example that shows funds actually souring on OpenAI? (Like, not less enthusiastic than before. Actually souring. Selling.)
It will draw a non-zero number just curious people who never use ChatGPT.
And bots are exfiltrating model knowledge for the benefit of competition.
Reddit has been one of the world's top websites for over a decade, yet they are totally irrelevant in terms of ad product market share.
ChatGPT ads are low quality placed at the bottom barely noticed.
ChatGPT ads will get better. Meta's social userbase is drying up. Google keeps introducing and removing things from chrome to keep access to spy on you for them alone. We'll see how things pan out but in ten more years reddit ads will still be worthless.
How can you tell that? "The Market" at the moment is the private investor market and, to my (admittedly untrained) eye, those two companies are being treated exactly the same when they raise.
What do you mean? I promise I'm not being facetious or satirical. I'm just too simple and conservative of an investor to understand this comment. (for example: Is the price-to-earnings ratio too high? I probably wouldn't want to invest in the business.)
Today everyone knows there's no agi coming up and it will be a very long time until they generate any profits, if ever.
The populist backlash is coming for datacenters. I'm unconvinced that's truly problematic to these companies given data travels close to the speed of light and plenty of countries have energy, data interconnects and governments unresponsive to locals' concerns.