RocketLab gains spectrum + profitable satellite company
espadrine · 2026-06-29 15:11:16 UTC
Iridum gains 23 launches per year with 100% success rate in the past 12 months, a satellite manufacturing pipeline with 6 satellites produced and launched, and a cost-to-orbit of $25K/kg operational (with an in-development design targetting $4K/kg).
They are late compared to SpaceX, to be sure:
150 launches per year, 2400 satellites manufactured per year, $3K/kg operational with F9, target $200/kg in development with Starship.
panick21_ · 2026-06-29 15:36:26 UTC
You act as if 'launch' is a thing. All Rocket Lab launches ever combined don't even fill a single SpaceX rocket. Those are not the same thing.
Lets see their reliability when they have a bigger rocket and if they can land reliably. Because their rocket will be quite expensive to build.
schainks · 2026-06-29 15:54:39 UTC
I think that’s the point of their niche right? They are already plenty reliable. Also let’s them do stuff like this:
We know from the graveyard of companies that reached orbit with their small rockets and ran out of funding before they got to be reliable, that reliably flying even a small rocket is pretty good.
panick21_ · 2026-06-30 08:12:44 UTC
I didn't say it wasn't good.
Symmetry · 2026-06-29 15:13:57 UTC
The spectrum is the big thing. If they wanted a revenue stream they could just buy bonds.
NetMageSCW · 2026-06-29 15:17:43 UTC
A profitable satellite company with a lot of debt and satellites that target the previous model of bespoke terminals when the market is moving to satellite service on regular phones.
hobonation · 2026-06-29 15:34:52 UTC
Iridium terminals can be very power-efficient. Consumer ones are the size of a deck of cards and can last for days.
Scoundreller · 2026-06-29 17:25:33 UTC
I wonder how much of the power-efficiency is due to being much slower.
Don’t need to blast and beam-steer if you can deal with poor SNR by taking your time to differentiate the 0s and 1s?
Which is more power efficient per megabyte?
(But I get it: sometimes a few bits is all you need)
lxgr · 2026-06-29 17:37:59 UTC
All of it. You can't really get around physics.
Iridium has historically targeted low-power, omnidirectional terminals (antennas can be larger at lower frequencies without requiring steering than at higher frequencies).
They recently had some forays into steered, high-bandwidth antennas with their Certus line and their second-generation satellites that now allow native packet switching (the first gen was circuit-switched at 2.4 kbps only), but that brings you into the bandwidth-limited regime, and is honestly just a waste of scarce L-band spectrum and much better served by all the Ku- and Ka-band LEO competitors.
It's going to be interesting to see if Rocketlab start also serving that market, like some of their main competitors already are.
labcomputer · 2026-06-29 22:49:05 UTC
> (antennas can be larger at lower frequencies without requiring steering than at higher frequencies).
No.
1. Iridium uses frequencies fairly close to GPS (~1.6GHz).
> They recently had some forays into steered, high-bandwidth antennas with their Certus line and their second-generation satellites that now allow native packet switching (the first gen was circuit-switched at 2.4 kbps only), but that brings you into the bandwidth-limited regime,
This is AI slop?
No, the point of using an electrically-steered beam antenna is that it improves SNR, so that you are not bandwidth limited.
lxgr · 2026-06-30 04:53:02 UTC
> 1. Iridium uses frequencies fairly close to GPS (~1.6GHz).
2. Iridium uses cylindrically-polarized transmissions (like GPS), which enable compact omnidirectional helical antennas
Which part of my argument is this an objection to?
Are you saying that using circular polarization, the same would be possible in the Ku or even Ka bands? Because that’s definitely not the case due to the different aperture/gain tradeoff vs. L-band, and that’s my point.
> This is AI slop?
Did I say anything incorrect there or do you just not like my writing?
> No, the point of using an electrically-steered beam antenna is that it improves SNR, so that you are not bandwidth limited.
Sure, but my point was: At low frequencies, you can steer to become more efficient per bit, but at high frequencies you almost have to, as you’re sending energy in suboptimal directions otherwise. And then if you’re already steering, why not use a less-scarce band?
amluto · 2026-06-29 15:58:19 UTC
> the market is moving to satellite service on regular phones.
I don’t think there a unified “market” here. The fixed rooftop terminals and fixed-ish roaming terminals use high (tens of GHz) frequencies with correspondingly wide bandwidth, have excellent beamforming capabilities and some degree of MIMO to improve spectrum reuse, and consume an amount of power that would be outrageous for a phone. Phones don’t have reliably clear views of the sky and have much weaker RF capabilities.
Oh, and phones are well served by existing 4G and 5G networks in dense areas, with better spectrum reuse than seems practical for a satellite constellation.
I expect that we will actually see two separate markets that happen to share the same satellites and backhaul.
piltdownman · 2026-06-29 16:17:22 UTC
//I don’t think there a unified “market” here.
You mean like the ASTS/Vodafone partnership that birthed the Satellite Connect Europe?
My claim is that these are not the same market as the traditional Starlink service.
lxgr · 2026-06-29 17:25:29 UTC
They didn't circumvent phone antennas being largely omnidirectional (unlike VSAT or phased arrays, which are highly directional) and as a result having much lower gain, they just work with it, just like Iridium, Globalstar, Inmarsat, Thuraya, and all the other early players in what's now called "direct to device".
The market is as bimodal as ever on the device side: On one side, you have small, battery-powered, (mostly) omnidirectional device antenna, portable devices that mainly operate in the L-band, which works much better in these conditions; on the other side, you have highly sophisticated, steered, high power (dozens of watts) antenna arrays operating in the Ku or Ka band.
On the satellite side, both can be served by the same satellites, as has been the case for e.g. Inmarsat's I-6 series and Starlink's direct-to-cell capable satellites (I believe these all include Ku-band coverage as well).
amluto · 2026-06-29 19:00:19 UTC
I suspect that the lack of ability to form nulls in the beam is as big or even a bigger limitation than the reduction in gain when going from a big array to a phone.
The SNR in Shannon’s Law has a log in front of it, but spectrum reuse is more or less linear. If there are five visible satellites and I can null out four of them, then I can receive from and transmit to the fifth without substantial interference. (I’m not saying this is easy! Contemplate how many WiFi generations have had MIMO and how limited it still is.)
So I believe that it’s comparatively straightforward to demonstrate a shiny new direct-to-cell system with a single phone on a stage, but achieving usefully large aggregate bandwidth in a dense area will be more challenging.
FWIW the problem with Iridium, historically anyway, was that available bandwidth was very low, so they had to charge a silly amount for usage of that bandwidth, so very few people used it. Iridium used low-ish frequencies, with narrow bandwidth, and (I think) no MIMO whatsoever, not even polarization diversity.
lxgr · 2026-06-29 19:51:02 UTC
Yes, for more than one satellite covering the same area on the ground with a spotbeam on the same frequency at the same time to make sense, you inherently need steering/beamforming.
That's why Iridium has the constellation planned out so that you never have more satellites in the sky than strictly necessary for full coverage on the equator (where satellite density is lowest), and outer spot beams get turned off progressively as the satellites approach the poles as they'd only create interference without increasing bandwidth due to the lack of terminal-side steering.
Now I wonder if they already changed that for the second generation sats, given that there are some steered terminals available that could probably make good use of the extra satellite density near the poles, which is also an area underserved by geostationary beams?
NetMageSCW · 2026-06-29 23:44:42 UTC
Dense areas get terrestrial towers as the do now. Non-dense areas fall back to satellite towers with no change in devices needed.
lxgr · 2026-06-30 05:00:54 UTC
Definitely, and I think GP raises a valid point: Without beamforming, there’s no point in having more than one station covering the same area, whether terrestrial tower or satellite-based spot beam.
And while 4G and beyond use some mild device-side beamforming, it’s a whole different ballpark than parabolic antennas or phased arrays in terms of gain.
piltdownman · 2026-06-30 12:58:00 UTC
Well they've circumvented the need for dedicated hardware to achieve NTN on unmodified UE, ahead of any such implementation in the 3GPP specs. The incumbents all rely on dedicated proprietary platforms - not an off-the-shelf Android SoC smartphone which represents the target-device in the developing world
Traditional 5G UEs are inherently size-bound in terms of supporting device-side beamforming at any performant level, so you're limiting the Starlink style Ku-band spectrum sharing through spatial multiplexing afforded by their directional arrays. No argument there.
ASTS are tricking a NTN connection by fooling an unmodified 5G UE into thinking it's connecting to a terrestrial gNodeB, and then handing it off using bent-pipe architecture to the various terrestrial serving gateways. They claim to have flipped the dependency to allow their proprietary phased array satellites to do the heavy Tx/Rx lifting, and have some Doppler Compensation secret sauce to fix the issues on the terrestrial side.
Only for companies that choose to make or support phones with Iridium connectivity included, as opposed to AST and Starlink targeting existing phones.
lxgr · 2026-06-30 05:07:19 UTC
Kind of: Phones will probably need some Iridium-specific RF hardware (unless their existing baseband and amplifiers happen to cover the band it uses), but the baseband and signaling stack won’t be proprietary anymore if I understand it correctly.
Several mass-market phones already are IoT-NTN compatible, e.g. Google’s Pixel line.
numpad0 · 2026-06-30 08:52:21 UTC
I'm not sure if that kind of great replacement theories stand anymore. That happened once with iPhone, and... what else? All the direct-to-cell stuffs are limited to simple texts as well. IIUC they require the phones to be out in the wild with nobody around and patient with the rituals of sending messages, like how earliest forms of GPS receivers worked. I don't see that changing that much in coming few years.
wongarsu · 2026-06-29 15:18:58 UTC
And access to a customer base. A lot easier to sell them new services if they already have a big contract with you
davidpapermill · 2026-06-29 15:23:50 UTC
> Rocket Lab has secured commitments for a $3.6 billion bridge loan from Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo to fund the cash portion of the acquisition.
Given the timing, this seems like a risky move as they'll be issuing debt in mid-2027 to refinance the bridge, at a time the market could be saturated / corrected.
Crazy. I didn't know you could acquire things worth 20x more than you.
brookst · 2026-06-29 15:01:40 UTC
Look at GameStop’s quixotic attempt to acquire eBay. Which is actually not impossible.
moralestapia · 2026-06-29 15:03:52 UTC
Did GameStop acquire eBay?
sspiff · 2026-06-29 15:09:17 UTC
They are trying.
ortusdux · 2026-06-29 15:10:44 UTC
5x the market cap!
zie · 2026-06-29 15:21:19 UTC
It's an interesting way to apply for the eBay CEO job for sure.
iamacyborg · 2026-06-29 15:35:18 UTC
Someone's been reading Money Stuff.
zie · 2026-06-29 20:29:45 UTC
It's hilarious reading! :)
moralestapia · 2026-06-30 15:23:31 UTC
SBF admitting crimes on an interview with him as Matt was dumbfounded was an historical moment.
His coverage of the downfall of FTX was hilariously good as well. Wrt. to the infamous Excel sheet, he wrote something like "when you're trying to calculate this, Excel shouldn't give you back a number, it should warn you about going to prison", lmao.
PierceJoy · 2026-06-29 15:05:38 UTC
Rocket Lab's market cap is 57B and are buying Iridium for 8B. I'm assuming you're implying some other measure of worth, but it's not that crazy based on stock price.
ericmay · 2026-06-29 15:07:45 UTC
Also folks acquire things "worth" more than them all the time. That's in part why debt exists.
There are a lot of folks out there that are overly cynical and so they'll just write things like the OP from time to time which just don't make much sense or have much to do with how the real world works. What's more interesting is looking at or trying to understand strategically why Rocket Lab is making this move, especially if you are an investor.
pnw · 2026-06-29 15:06:26 UTC
RocketLab market cap is 57b.
Iridium market cap was 5.5b and this transaction values it at 8b.
sspiff · 2026-06-29 15:10:59 UTC
I'm guessing they acquired it mostly exchanging stocks. Which I guess is an indication that their stock is overvalued right now if they're willing to overpay by that much.
xgbi · 2026-06-29 15:20:37 UTC
How is Rocketlab valued 57B? They made $500M of revenue in 2025. This is 100x their entire balance sheet.
wateralien · 2026-06-29 15:22:00 UTC
This is a good question for SpaceX too.
saberience · 2026-06-29 15:29:58 UTC
Why was Uber valued in billions for years while making zero profit?
Why was Amazon valued at billions while making zero profit?
The stock market prices companies by many factors, revenue and profit are factors but so is growth.
Utilities companies make lots of profits but they are valued badly because they don’t grow at all!
Markets are forward looking and space is seen as a huge growth driver for the future, also RocketLab has been growing their top line revenue massively over the last few years.
wongarsu · 2026-06-29 15:58:17 UTC
Uber and Amazon made zero profit, but a lot of revenue. That's very different from losing money on fairly little revenue
But RocketLab did have five years of strong revenue growth. And they have a lower PS ratio than SpaceX. So at least compared to industry-rivals the valuation is justified
pavon · 2026-06-29 15:45:29 UTC
Yeah, that seems grossly unrealistic. They are growing. Neutron is almost complete, and I'd expect significant growth in their launch revenue from that, and their space services are also doing well. So I could easily see their revenue increasing 5x over the next 5 years, maybe 10x. But that market cap can only be justified by the space market as a whole growing 100x, and RL maintaining a significant portion of it with strong competition from SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others.
ElProlactin · 2026-06-29 16:27:33 UTC
> Neutron is almost complete...
I've made hundreds of thousands of dollars from my early investments in RKLB but this isn't true if by "complete" you mean they have a proven launch vehicle. The company is now targeting late 2026 for Neutron's inaugural flight.
Neutron was announced in 2021. There were hopes for a 2024 first flight. Then it was mid-to-late 2025. Now it's Q4 2026 after a failure related to the stage 1 tank earlier this year.
If anyone can pull off using carbon composite for a launch vehicle of this size, it's RKLB. But nobody has done it before and I think the retail investor base is taking for granted something that is not at all guaranteed. There's much more risk than a lot of people think.
In some ways, RKLB is more like pre-clinical biotech stocks, which usually produce binary outcomes (a drug succeeds or it fails, and the company's fate is based on that). If Neutron works, RKLB gets to execute its grand vision. If it fails, it doesn't. The vision (and valuation) doesn't work without Neutron.
everfrustrated · 2026-06-29 18:49:49 UTC
Yes tho I'd argue that Rocket Lab has the finances to easily weather a few more years of Neutron set back if that ends up happening (fingers crossed it doesn't happen). They aren't going bust anytime soon.
So I don't see the downside as being zero.
ElProlactin · 2026-06-29 22:49:39 UTC
> Yes tho I'd argue that Rocket Lab has the finances to easily weather a few more years of Neutron set back...
The company won't go bankrupt if Neutron is delayed but I disagree with the "easily" part and Iridium complicates the picture. It throws off a lot of cash but comes with a $3.6 billion bridge loan that RKLB will need to deal with in the next year. If they term it out with debt, the leverage goes way up. If they term it out with equity, there's real dilution risk, especially in the scenario where the market prices in Neutron delays (because the stock almost certainly will be lower).
The reality is that Neutron is critical to the RKLB story, and that story is what supports the current valuation. Even after the recent decline from the ~$150 peak, this is a very richly valued company priced for close-to-perfection.
The biggest risk is that carbon composite approach proves not to be viable for a launch vehicle of this size and RKLB has to fundamentally change the design. While I wouldn't have invested in this company if I thought that risk was >50%, it's definitely not as close to 0% as most retail investors seem to believe.
panick21_ · 2026-06-29 20:34:04 UTC
I'm really interested in the combination of carbon fiber and landing. Dealing with the heat seems challenging.
boredatoms · 2026-06-29 16:35:25 UTC
A rocket being nearly complete just means they haven’t started the multi year testing delays when the first couple of launches inevitably fail
Dylan16807 · 2026-06-30 07:30:52 UTC
I don't follow your math. Let's say we want to target a price to earnings ratio of 20-25. That requires 2.3-3 billion of profit. If they increased their revenue 10x, they'd have 5 billion revenue, which puts them not super far from the target.
So let's say they need to 20x or 30x revenue. That would mean their new size needs to be similar in size to the current space market as a whole. If they have a compelling price, that might require a 5x growth in the space market as a whole? Less than that if you think they're really good at pulling in the new customers? I don't understand where you got 100x.
moralestapia · 2026-06-29 16:09:11 UTC
Exactly my point.
Iridium's revenue is larger, and I wouldn't think they'd be losing money.
But apparently you can buy things with promises (if you're in the right club, of course).
bmacho · 2026-06-29 17:25:52 UTC
> But apparently you can buy things with promises
Even better: if you buy things that don't lose their value overtime (mostly anything apart from food, car, electronics, services) and you buy them at price, they're free. You give money for them but you receive equal amount of wealth. I repeat: you buy the thing and your wealth stays the same, doesn't grow or shrink. That's how companies can buy each others with promises.
(If you're a bank that can lend me $4.7T I think buying nvidia could benefit us both. Contact me at nick @ gmail . com)
The same could be said for many companies in the last three decades. Sometimes investors are right, sometimes they are wrong. Cloudflare is a good example, and they weren't even going to space. It's less about current earnings and more about whether they become key infrastructure for a new market.
bitwize · 2026-06-29 15:06:36 UTC
This is one of those times you actually get to use "leverage" as a verb without sounding turbo cringe: a leveraged buyout is an acquisition with borrowed money; the hope is that you will be able to pay back the debt with the money you make off the acquired assets. Doesn't always pan out but sometimes it does.
malfist · 2026-06-29 15:08:53 UTC
Dell bought EMC for 67b when they were worth 24b
panick21_ · 2026-06-29 20:35:52 UTC
That never made sense to me, why not the other way around. Wasn't EMC the better business?
elzbardico · 2026-06-29 15:14:43 UTC
That's this thing called credit.
People do this all the time, that's how they buy their first house (or at least used to...). Your net worth is basically zero beyond what you saved for the down payment, but the bank advances you the money to buy the house because it believes your future income streams will allow you to pay the principal plus an interest.
dylan604 · 2026-06-29 16:00:23 UTC
being able to foreclose on the house/property is a pretty decent protection for the bank that doesn't exist for a business though
elzbardico · 2026-06-29 23:04:55 UTC
Higher risk, higher premium.
kps · 2026-06-29 17:14:59 UTC
Remember when NeXT acquired Apple for negative 400 million?
phildenhoff · 2026-06-29 15:07:18 UTC
Rocket lab used to be a New Zealand source of pride, having started there. From the press release, now it’s American. What happened?
ericmay · 2026-06-29 15:09:04 UTC
Needs access to American capital markets, contracts, governance structures, and jurisdiction (applicable law).
It was always an American company. In order to launch rockets from countries in the US sphere of influence (even from NZ), companies must obtain an FAA license.
Rocket technology itself is so intensely regulated by US export control laws that it’s practically impossible to develop an orbital launch vehicle without being a US- or Europe-registered company.
It is a real shame. It also looks like a lot of engineering work is shifting away from NZ — Auckland seems to be focusing more on operations and space systems, and the launch stuff is moving to the US with Neutron.
jackmott42 · 2026-06-29 18:09:08 UTC
Why do people reply with this "it was always american" response? Do you feel like it is necessary to protect RocketLab or something?
It was founded by a guy in new zealand with the first launch complex and first launches coming out of new zealand.
to characterize that as "always american" is so silly it makes you seem like a non serious person.
of course they would have had american resources and connections from the start.
panick21_ · 2026-06-29 19:55:27 UTC
Before they ever launched a rocket they were a primarily American company. That literally just a fact.
It was created by somebody from New Zealand and a lot of early operations was in New Zealand nobody is denying that.
versteegen · 2026-06-30 00:44:05 UTC
That is false. They were a purely NZ operation launching sub-orbital rockets before they got into DARPA contracts. What you meant to say is "Before they ever launched Electron", and I'm pretty sure that is false too, they weren't "primarily" American, the majority of the workforce was in NZ until years after that.
inemesitaffia · 2026-06-30 02:00:46 UTC
SpaceX has most staff in California.
It's a Texas company.
panick21_ · 2026-06-30 08:11:46 UTC
I'm 99% sure that they went to the US venture to raise money to build Electron and that's when they made the US company that primary and the NZ company the subsidiary.
versteegen · 2026-06-30 12:53:59 UTC
Yes you are correct. That's one meaning of primary. I just think it's misleading by the more colloquial meaning to say "primarily a US company" when AFAIK basically all the engineering happened in the NZ subsidiary of what was initially more-or-less a USA shell company. Engine manufacture was the first thing they moved to the USA that I know of, after one or two launches IIRC.
Aside, Peter Beck has said (probably at a talk I was at in 2014) that they initially designed and built Electron in NZ so that they would be importing restricted technology into the USA, to minimise ITAR problems, which only covers exports.
elzbardico · 2026-06-29 15:10:47 UTC
Capital probably, market access. It is pretty hard to raise capital for high risk ventures like that everywhere in the world other than the US.
khurs · 2026-06-29 16:04:19 UTC
SpaceX previously said that are not allowed to hire foreign nationals generally.
So guess NASA told Rocket that if they want American contracts, they need to move?
same thing that always happens to companies, money
bell-cot · 2026-06-29 16:47:02 UTC
It sure doesn't help that New Zealand's housing market is one of the most unaffordable in the world.
rr808 · 2026-06-29 17:45:17 UTC
Compared to LA even NZ looks cheap
seattle_spring · 2026-06-30 15:04:31 UTC
How about when compared to income potential?
y0ssar1an · 2026-06-29 16:51:10 UTC
at least it's still got a bunch of Kiwi engineers building the Rutherford engine.
generuso · 2026-06-29 20:09:28 UTC
They do not like to talk about it too much in public these days, but Rocket Lab had somewhat shady beginnings. Once they moved past the semi-amateur phase, their first real project was weapons development on a DARPA contract. They were working on a paste-like semi-solid fuel for throttleable engines for munitions, and other similar things.
That pushed their main NZ investor away, and they somehow hooked up with the US intelligence community, which facilitated a rather unique series of inter-government arrangements for launching US reconnaissance satellites from NZ. That was probably always the appeal -- to launch over China with very little warning. A cheap, rapidly launchable vehicle was always a dream of the US agencies -- in 2003 this was FALCON program (Force Application and Launch from CONUS) run by DARPA and the Air Force, and today it is the Space Force's "Victus".
So, although the bulk of work was done in NZ, Rocket Lab functioned rather intimately with the US spooks from the very early on, including getting some funding from In-Q-Tel. Then in 2013, for the bulk of investment they just had to become a Delaware Corporation, for all the usual reasons. Very soon they moved engine manufacturing to a facility in California. More recently, with the large rocket (Neutron), their main manufacturing operations are in LA and the launch facility in Wallops. All in all, they are an international outfit.
postingawayonhn · 2026-06-29 22:10:13 UTC
They still have significant NZ design, manufacturing, and launch operations.
For regulatory and capital raising reasons the parent company has been US based for quite a few years now. They've also been on a multi-year acquisitions spree and picked up quite a large US workforce through that.
JumpCrisscross · 2026-06-30 04:32:34 UTC
> What happened?
ITAR. (From what I remember, Beck really tried to avoid it. But there isn’t a competitive solution for a New Zealand-based aerospace company.)
JanSolo · 2026-06-29 15:13:20 UTC
I think they saw how SpaceX was using Starlink as launch lever to provide SpaceX a baseline of regular launches at bare-minimum cost. As RocketLab starts to scale up, being able guarantee a minimum number of launches is a significant hedge against the dips in the global satellite market.
Also, RocketLab builds their own sats and can add the Iridium constellation replacements to their order book. It's a win-win. A smart move by Peter Beck and his team.
NetMageSCW · 2026-06-29 15:15:08 UTC
What does Tesla have to do with Starlink or launch services?
JanSolo · 2026-06-29 15:15:47 UTC
Derp; I meant SpaceX.
nonethewiser · 2026-06-29 16:59:06 UTC
Might be one-in-the-same soon enough
fastball · 2026-06-29 18:18:07 UTC
Seems unlikely now that both are separate public companies. Creative accounting acquisitions are somewhat more difficult in that context.
skissane · 2026-06-29 18:47:10 UTC
Alternative take: if a SPCX-TSLA merger proposal is publicly announced, that will create market enthusiasm (quite possibly irrational) about “unlocking synergies” which will temporarily pump both stocks, thereby making Musk (and all the other insiders) richer, even if only temporarily.
Plus, the two firms already cooperate heavily, and Musk wants them to cooperate more, but being two separate public companies adds a lot of legal friction to that cooperation (each board has to review and sign off on things independently) and legal risks (shareholder lawsuits alleging they are cooperating in ways contrary to shareholder interests)
So I think, from Musk’s viewpoint, it is a very logical next step, which means it probably will happen sooner or later
Comments
They are late compared to SpaceX, to be sure: 150 launches per year, 2400 satellites manufactured per year, $3K/kg operational with F9, target $200/kg in development with Starship.
Lets see their reliability when they have a bigger rocket and if they can land reliably. Because their rocket will be quite expensive to build.
https://rocketlabcorp.com/updates/victus-haze/
Don’t need to blast and beam-steer if you can deal with poor SNR by taking your time to differentiate the 0s and 1s?
Which is more power efficient per megabyte?
(But I get it: sometimes a few bits is all you need)
Iridium has historically targeted low-power, omnidirectional terminals (antennas can be larger at lower frequencies without requiring steering than at higher frequencies).
They recently had some forays into steered, high-bandwidth antennas with their Certus line and their second-generation satellites that now allow native packet switching (the first gen was circuit-switched at 2.4 kbps only), but that brings you into the bandwidth-limited regime, and is honestly just a waste of scarce L-band spectrum and much better served by all the Ku- and Ka-band LEO competitors.
It's going to be interesting to see if Rocketlab start also serving that market, like some of their main competitors already are.
No.
1. Iridium uses frequencies fairly close to GPS (~1.6GHz).
2. Iridium uses cylindrically-polarized transmissions (like GPS), which enable compact omnidirectional helical antennas
> They recently had some forays into steered, high-bandwidth antennas with their Certus line and their second-generation satellites that now allow native packet switching (the first gen was circuit-switched at 2.4 kbps only), but that brings you into the bandwidth-limited regime,
This is AI slop?
No, the point of using an electrically-steered beam antenna is that it improves SNR, so that you are not bandwidth limited.
Which part of my argument is this an objection to?
Are you saying that using circular polarization, the same would be possible in the Ku or even Ka bands? Because that’s definitely not the case due to the different aperture/gain tradeoff vs. L-band, and that’s my point.
> This is AI slop?
Did I say anything incorrect there or do you just not like my writing?
> No, the point of using an electrically-steered beam antenna is that it improves SNR, so that you are not bandwidth limited.
Sure, but my point was: At low frequencies, you can steer to become more efficient per bit, but at high frequencies you almost have to, as you’re sending energy in suboptimal directions otherwise. And then if you’re already steering, why not use a less-scarce band?
I don’t think there a unified “market” here. The fixed rooftop terminals and fixed-ish roaming terminals use high (tens of GHz) frequencies with correspondingly wide bandwidth, have excellent beamforming capabilities and some degree of MIMO to improve spectrum reuse, and consume an amount of power that would be outrageous for a phone. Phones don’t have reliably clear views of the sky and have much weaker RF capabilities.
Oh, and phones are well served by existing 4G and 5G networks in dense areas, with better spectrum reuse than seems practical for a satellite constellation.
I expect that we will actually see two separate markets that happen to share the same satellites and backhaul.
You mean like the ASTS/Vodafone partnership that birthed the Satellite Connect Europe?
https://www.vodafone.com/news/newsroom/technology/satellite-...
https://www.vodafone.com/news/newsroom/technology/vodafone-a...
Or like the US JV where they provide the infra for AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260513491108/en/AST...
//Phones don’t have reliably clear views of the sky and have much weaker RF capabilities.
And they appear to have circumvented that, although ease of scaling remains to be seen.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/comments/1k6whtf/rak...
The market is as bimodal as ever on the device side: On one side, you have small, battery-powered, (mostly) omnidirectional device antenna, portable devices that mainly operate in the L-band, which works much better in these conditions; on the other side, you have highly sophisticated, steered, high power (dozens of watts) antenna arrays operating in the Ku or Ka band.
On the satellite side, both can be served by the same satellites, as has been the case for e.g. Inmarsat's I-6 series and Starlink's direct-to-cell capable satellites (I believe these all include Ku-band coverage as well).
The SNR in Shannon’s Law has a log in front of it, but spectrum reuse is more or less linear. If there are five visible satellites and I can null out four of them, then I can receive from and transmit to the fifth without substantial interference. (I’m not saying this is easy! Contemplate how many WiFi generations have had MIMO and how limited it still is.)
So I believe that it’s comparatively straightforward to demonstrate a shiny new direct-to-cell system with a single phone on a stage, but achieving usefully large aggregate bandwidth in a dense area will be more challenging.
FWIW the problem with Iridium, historically anyway, was that available bandwidth was very low, so they had to charge a silly amount for usage of that bandwidth, so very few people used it. Iridium used low-ish frequencies, with narrow bandwidth, and (I think) no MIMO whatsoever, not even polarization diversity.
That's why Iridium has the constellation planned out so that you never have more satellites in the sky than strictly necessary for full coverage on the equator (where satellite density is lowest), and outer spot beams get turned off progressively as the satellites approach the poles as they'd only create interference without increasing bandwidth due to the lack of terminal-side steering.
Now I wonder if they already changed that for the second generation sats, given that there are some steered terminals available that could probably make good use of the extra satellite density near the poles, which is also an area underserved by geostationary beams?
And while 4G and beyond use some mild device-side beamforming, it’s a whole different ballpark than parabolic antennas or phased arrays in terms of gain.
Traditional 5G UEs are inherently size-bound in terms of supporting device-side beamforming at any performant level, so you're limiting the Starlink style Ku-band spectrum sharing through spatial multiplexing afforded by their directional arrays. No argument there.
ASTS are tricking a NTN connection by fooling an unmodified 5G UE into thinking it's connecting to a terrestrial gNodeB, and then handing it off using bent-pipe architecture to the various terrestrial serving gateways. They claim to have flipped the dependency to allow their proprietary phased array satellites to do the heavy Tx/Rx lifting, and have some Doppler Compensation secret sauce to fix the issues on the terrestrial side.
Several mass-market phones already are IoT-NTN compatible, e.g. Google’s Pixel line.
Given the timing, this seems like a risky move as they'll be issuing debt in mid-2027 to refinance the bridge, at a time the market could be saturated / corrected.
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/rocket-lab-bu...
His coverage of the downfall of FTX was hilariously good as well. Wrt. to the infamous Excel sheet, he wrote something like "when you're trying to calculate this, Excel shouldn't give you back a number, it should warn you about going to prison", lmao.
There are a lot of folks out there that are overly cynical and so they'll just write things like the OP from time to time which just don't make much sense or have much to do with how the real world works. What's more interesting is looking at or trying to understand strategically why Rocket Lab is making this move, especially if you are an investor.
Iridium market cap was 5.5b and this transaction values it at 8b.
Why was Amazon valued at billions while making zero profit?
The stock market prices companies by many factors, revenue and profit are factors but so is growth.
Utilities companies make lots of profits but they are valued badly because they don’t grow at all!
Markets are forward looking and space is seen as a huge growth driver for the future, also RocketLab has been growing their top line revenue massively over the last few years.
But RocketLab did have five years of strong revenue growth. And they have a lower PS ratio than SpaceX. So at least compared to industry-rivals the valuation is justified
I've made hundreds of thousands of dollars from my early investments in RKLB but this isn't true if by "complete" you mean they have a proven launch vehicle. The company is now targeting late 2026 for Neutron's inaugural flight.
Neutron was announced in 2021. There were hopes for a 2024 first flight. Then it was mid-to-late 2025. Now it's Q4 2026 after a failure related to the stage 1 tank earlier this year.
If anyone can pull off using carbon composite for a launch vehicle of this size, it's RKLB. But nobody has done it before and I think the retail investor base is taking for granted something that is not at all guaranteed. There's much more risk than a lot of people think.
In some ways, RKLB is more like pre-clinical biotech stocks, which usually produce binary outcomes (a drug succeeds or it fails, and the company's fate is based on that). If Neutron works, RKLB gets to execute its grand vision. If it fails, it doesn't. The vision (and valuation) doesn't work without Neutron.
The company won't go bankrupt if Neutron is delayed but I disagree with the "easily" part and Iridium complicates the picture. It throws off a lot of cash but comes with a $3.6 billion bridge loan that RKLB will need to deal with in the next year. If they term it out with debt, the leverage goes way up. If they term it out with equity, there's real dilution risk, especially in the scenario where the market prices in Neutron delays (because the stock almost certainly will be lower).
The reality is that Neutron is critical to the RKLB story, and that story is what supports the current valuation. Even after the recent decline from the ~$150 peak, this is a very richly valued company priced for close-to-perfection.
The biggest risk is that carbon composite approach proves not to be viable for a launch vehicle of this size and RKLB has to fundamentally change the design. While I wouldn't have invested in this company if I thought that risk was >50%, it's definitely not as close to 0% as most retail investors seem to believe.
So let's say they need to 20x or 30x revenue. That would mean their new size needs to be similar in size to the current space market as a whole. If they have a compelling price, that might require a 5x growth in the space market as a whole? Less than that if you think they're really good at pulling in the new customers? I don't understand where you got 100x.
Iridium's revenue is larger, and I wouldn't think they'd be losing money.
But apparently you can buy things with promises (if you're in the right club, of course).
Even better: if you buy things that don't lose their value overtime (mostly anything apart from food, car, electronics, services) and you buy them at price, they're free. You give money for them but you receive equal amount of wealth. I repeat: you buy the thing and your wealth stays the same, doesn't grow or shrink. That's how companies can buy each others with promises.
(If you're a bank that can lend me $4.7T I think buying nvidia could benefit us both. Contact me at nick @ gmail . com)
People do this all the time, that's how they buy their first house (or at least used to...). Your net worth is basically zero beyond what you saved for the down payment, but the bank advances you the money to buy the house because it believes your future income streams will allow you to pay the principal plus an interest.
Rocket technology itself is so intensely regulated by US export control laws that it’s practically impossible to develop an orbital launch vehicle without being a US- or Europe-registered company.
It is a real shame. It also looks like a lot of engineering work is shifting away from NZ — Auckland seems to be focusing more on operations and space systems, and the launch stuff is moving to the US with Neutron.
It was founded by a guy in new zealand with the first launch complex and first launches coming out of new zealand.
to characterize that as "always american" is so silly it makes you seem like a non serious person.
of course they would have had american resources and connections from the start.
It was created by somebody from New Zealand and a lot of early operations was in New Zealand nobody is denying that.
It's a Texas company.
Aside, Peter Beck has said (probably at a talk I was at in 2014) that they initially designed and built Electron in NZ so that they would be importing restricted technology into the USA, to minimise ITAR problems, which only covers exports.
So guess NASA told Rocket that if they want American contracts, they need to move?
https://qz.com/794101/elon-musk-explains-why-he-doesnt-hire-...
That pushed their main NZ investor away, and they somehow hooked up with the US intelligence community, which facilitated a rather unique series of inter-government arrangements for launching US reconnaissance satellites from NZ. That was probably always the appeal -- to launch over China with very little warning. A cheap, rapidly launchable vehicle was always a dream of the US agencies -- in 2003 this was FALCON program (Force Application and Launch from CONUS) run by DARPA and the Air Force, and today it is the Space Force's "Victus".
So, although the bulk of work was done in NZ, Rocket Lab functioned rather intimately with the US spooks from the very early on, including getting some funding from In-Q-Tel. Then in 2013, for the bulk of investment they just had to become a Delaware Corporation, for all the usual reasons. Very soon they moved engine manufacturing to a facility in California. More recently, with the large rocket (Neutron), their main manufacturing operations are in LA and the launch facility in Wallops. All in all, they are an international outfit.
For regulatory and capital raising reasons the parent company has been US based for quite a few years now. They've also been on a multi-year acquisitions spree and picked up quite a large US workforce through that.
ITAR. (From what I remember, Beck really tried to avoid it. But there isn’t a competitive solution for a New Zealand-based aerospace company.)
Also, RocketLab builds their own sats and can add the Iridium constellation replacements to their order book. It's a win-win. A smart move by Peter Beck and his team.
Plus, the two firms already cooperate heavily, and Musk wants them to cooperate more, but being two separate public companies adds a lot of legal friction to that cooperation (each board has to review and sign off on things independently) and legal risks (shareholder lawsuits alleging they are cooperating in ways contrary to shareholder interests)
So I think, from Musk’s viewpoint, it is a very logical next step, which means it probably will happen sooner or later