Which is not that great for people using less than 50% every week, because the next reset date moves forward too. In essence, it is redistributing compute from people who haven't used their quota much to those who have.
Though I think they gave a banked reset this time.
throw8494949839 · 2026-08-24 18:20:08 UTC
Pretty much. I had 24 hours left with 80% remaining credit (planned big session tomorrow). There was reset one hour ago, that effectively halved my tokens for next 8 days!
calumcl · 2026-08-24 17:35:51 UTC
Subscribers were already getting subsidised compute and value compared to the 20-200$ fee, peak cakeism to want more considering the alternative would likely be consumption based pricing for individuals so you "benefit" from OpenAI giving up some of their markup (and heavy users end up SOL).
wahnfrieden · 2026-08-24 20:01:17 UTC
Looks like you’ve confused clarification for begging
calumcl · 2026-08-24 20:52:36 UTC
There was context for neither in your original post and I personally saw a lot of similar takes like the above online - apologies for the misunderstanding. I personally thought it was pretty clear considering the parent link is a link to the API pricing and their public communication on their twitter/blogs were "Subscription usage remains unchanged".
wahnfrieden · 2026-08-24 20:59:14 UTC
Typically subscription usage follows API pricing, but that disclaimer was absent from this HN link. It's only clear if you've seen those other communications
sandle · 2026-08-24 15:34:51 UTC
Absolutely loving this price war, long live open source models.
petcat · 2026-08-24 16:00:37 UTC
> long live open source models
There are no open source models, at least not useful ones (yet) [0]. Open weight is not the same as open source. The current "open weight" models are just opaque binary blobs you can run on your own computer instead of through a web API.
Nemotron Super is sort of open source in the sense that Nvidia provides almost everything you need to replicate it from scratch. Of course it’s performance is not exactly stellar but it could be a good starting point for other research teams.
BoredomIsFun · 2026-08-24 16:13:39 UTC
Nemotron is okay. Better than Olmo.
lambda · 2026-08-24 19:01:23 UTC
Better than Olmo in performance, not quite as open; release some, but not all, of their datasets.
wasfgwp · 2026-08-25 10:51:32 UTC
I guess it’s hard to provide data that you don’t have the rights to distribute and claim it’s open source.
adastra22 · 2026-08-24 16:47:05 UTC
This viewpoint doesn't make any sense to me. The weights + inference code are the "source code" for AI. I literally don't know what else you are demanding for the "open source" label.
keketi · 2026-08-24 17:09:46 UTC
> I literally don't know what else you are demanding for the "open source" label
Training data and code.
kingstnap · 2026-08-24 17:11:43 UTC
If you think of LLMs as programs. The weights and inference code are very much a binary.
While the training code and data are the true source. Since if you want to robustly modify the LLM that's actually what you need.
But since "compilation" (training) is extremely compute intensive this isn't something accessible to anyone without an entire datacenter.
Anyway semantics aside having the binary is still infinitely better than dealing with an api as far as privacy and control go.
kzrdude · 2026-08-24 18:23:34 UTC
I agree. But models in difference to compiled binaries, are useful as just weights and can be further refined and post-trained, at least.
I don't know LLM theory well enough to say if there's some secret sauce they can hold back that makes training ineffective. Less effective I'm sure, we don't have access to their smart training schemes, but post-training should always be possible IIUC.
MeetingsBrowser · 2026-08-24 19:53:44 UTC
At the risk of taking the analogy too far, I would treat refining like modifying a dynamic library. You can technically modify behavior, but only in a very coarse way.
post-training is like writing a wrapper around the binary. It is closer to building on top of than truly modifying, in that you can tailor things to your needs slightly but cannot make fundamental changes to the underlying thing.
adastra22 · 2026-08-25 19:48:44 UTC
Are you assuming single-layer LORA fine-tuning on top? Because with open-weights you can do full back-propagation training to mold the model into whatever shape you want.
For a stretched analogy, I think it is more like LEGO sets. Someone hands you a 10,000 piece masterpiece, and a box of unused LEGO parts. Hackers on HN object that the LEGO part manufacturing process is not included, you can't make your own parts, etc. But it's LEGO. You can pull apart the model, see how it is constructed, add your own refinements and features, or even redo it from the ground up. In a practical sense having knowledge about the factory making the parts doesn't really matter here.
Vetch · 2026-08-24 20:41:57 UTC
The weights + the architecture are already 100% of the code, the transformer is just a mathematical expression + helper programs whose sources are provided. The transformer itself is not even a stateful program, so a it is no more a binary than Piet or Tromp's BLC are. It's merely incomprehensible. Training isn't compilation either, since training a model is closer to program induction and the data are samples defining the solution space.
adastra22 · 2026-08-24 20:42:05 UTC
That’s not how it works though. Two training runs on the same data don’t produce the same weights. And if you want to modify the AI, you do so by fine tuning the weights not rerunning training. In every respect that matters, the weights are both the binary and the source code together.
stavros · 2026-08-24 21:18:01 UTC
If I want to remove censorship from your open-weights model, how do I do that?
Tryk · 2026-08-24 21:33:44 UTC
The process is called Ablation, there are many ablated models available to download
Put in the work. This is akin to asking how to remove Rust from a Rust project; just because something is legally available to you doesn't mean you wont need to apply dome elbow grease, depending how deep the changes you want are, ablation, fine-tuning, or distillation are tools you can use to remove "censorship"
raincole · 2026-08-25 03:03:24 UTC
By this standard there is no closed source software on PC. You can always modify the binary directly or hook your functions in.
riversflow · 2026-08-25 07:58:02 UTC
Wouldn’t any software that is a client and relies on a proprietary server to function (like most modern AAA games) be “closed source” under this definition? Not that I agree with this definition of open source btw, just saying that there is precedent.
spider-mario · 2026-08-25 07:30:26 UTC
Two builds of the same source code don’t always produce exactly the same binary either, but we don’t use that as an excuse to distribute object files and call it open-source.
xdertz · 2026-08-25 12:32:21 UTC
This is the same as saying every binary is open source because you can look at and change the machine code.
Open source means you reveal how you created this binary.
adastra22 · 2026-08-25 19:42:23 UTC
But training is not deterministic. The same training run on the same input can result in very different models. And even if you ignore the intrinsically stochastic part of training, the effort of creating a model is ad-hoc and involving humans. It is a crafted output, not a compiler output. The pre-training is the closest to being mechanistic, but these models are so many layers of work on top of the pretraining, and those higher layers have people in the loop. They run experiments, tweak things, run experiments again.
chasd00 · 2026-08-24 17:21:00 UTC
> I literally don't know what else you are demanding for the "open source" label.
you need to "literally" go read the definition of open source software or even ask an LLM to define it for you. Weights + inference code are not the source code they're more like the compiled binary. Making modifications to the behavior of a model with additional training is like writing a mod for minecraft. Sure, you can change things but it doesn't make it open source.
Calling these models "open source" is an old trap that software companies use to use. Free to download but then, once you're fully comitted, the trap snaps shut and you must pay up to continue.
jmiskovic · 2026-08-24 19:37:04 UTC
The vendor lock-in trap does not apply here. Users don't actually even run the original weights, they mostly use open source inference engines with open source agent harness. If AI provider decided to start charging, a) released models would not be affected, and b) people would drop it instantly and move to other models.
The actual problem is that we know nothing about the training set of any open-weights model. They could be intentionally biased to influence users, from political censorship to brand advertising, or general shaping of cultural norms. You run the model on own hardware not knowing if it is designed to act against you. Having whole chain open source would allow audit and reproducing the results.
satvikpendem · 2026-08-25 04:17:05 UTC
Everything required to recreate the model, ie training code and data, namely.
drusepth · 2026-08-24 17:21:55 UTC
Can you explain what's missing for the "open source" label that open-weight models like DeepSeek/Quen/GLM/etc don't release?
Is it just the supplementary data/code for how they were trained, not just the final product?
petcat · 2026-08-24 17:57:46 UTC
The open weight model providers don't provide the training data or the build tooling. You cannot reproduce the model yourself, or even really know what the model contains. They don't even provide high-level catalogues/descriptions of the training data. An improvement would be something like "trained on the entire WWW up to Aug 1 2026". Or "trained on a Wikipedia archive + Anna's Archive and everything we were able to scrape from Github". They don't provide any of this stuff.
I don't mind open-weight models, but they are not open source. It's like bringing home a dog from the rescue and just hoping that it doesn't have a history of biting kids in the face. You just can't know, because you don't know the full history. You can try to add new training (fine tune) to tell it not to bite kids, but that's it.
drusepth · 2026-08-24 18:08:00 UTC
Thank you for the detail/explanation. Hope my comment came off correctly as curiosity and a desire to understand, which this helped with.
rcr-anti · 2026-08-25 03:49:50 UTC
Was about to object, then realized you linked Allen ai and had the useful caveat. For what it's worth the OpenMDW license, which Nemotron and a few others have adopted, does say model weight.
That said, I've noticed the training procedures and corpus size of more useful open/available weights models are settling down more than I expected. Wonder if crowd sourcing good training data, even if it's just expensive model coding session transcripts, has potential to level the landscape some.
dominotw · 2026-08-24 15:35:40 UTC
then what happens?
they discovered a great way to destroy their own stickyness and make ppl build generic ai solutions.
xfax · 2026-08-24 15:36:00 UTC
Your move, Anthropic
system2 · 2026-08-24 21:36:31 UTC
They will just slow down the models even further. Anthropic is not up to this race.
ComputerGuru · 2026-08-24 15:36:53 UTC
It's a 20% discount on input and a 33% discount on output through at least November 21, 2026; the revised pricing schedule is now
So Sol is still 20x Luna, but much more appealing when compared to offerings from Anthropic and others.
CodingJeebus · 2026-08-24 17:10:08 UTC
It feels like a slightly more palatable version of what Anthropic has been doing, with their constant "use your free tokens before they expire next week!" campaigns. But it's feeling more and more ominous now, like they've hit the top of the demand curve and need to pull back prices to continue growing.
mw888 · 2026-08-24 22:53:58 UTC
ChatGPT subscriptions do the same weekly allowance, which the discounts apply to.
badatnames · 2026-08-24 15:37:15 UTC
Using codex every day, in spite of which, I hope some day providers will just start naming their offerings small/medium/large, a bit like we eventually started doing in software testing. Trying to remember what Sol is or why it's better than the other thing is more cognitive effort than I can muster at this point. And that's a sure sign of commoditisation in itself
phoghed · 2026-08-24 15:42:43 UTC
Sun, Earth, Moon — it’s basically L/M/S like you want but a little less boring.
Why is large better than medium to the average end user of ChatGPT though?
I don’t think there’s a way to name these things that will satisfy everyone.
mastercheif · 2026-08-24 15:48:11 UTC
The naming schema actually tripped me up for a week or so.
My brain's initial conception of the concepts was earth-relative, so I mapped it as:
Sol = big, it's the sun
Luna = medium, in-between sun and earth, space
Terra = small, terrestrial
inexcf · 2026-08-24 16:33:28 UTC
Pretty weird when the moon is as much between earth and sun as the earth is between the moon and the sun.
kgwgk · 2026-08-24 17:10:06 UTC
And when it’s in between we cannot even see it (unless it’s exactly in line).
hamandcheese · 2026-08-25 07:45:58 UTC
And when it’s in between we cannot even see it (when it’s exactly in line).
kgwgk · 2026-08-25 11:32:55 UTC
We can see it’s there though - I’d say that also counts.
hamandcheese · 2026-08-25 15:27:58 UTC
I believe you were referring to one kind of eclipsed and with my subtle edit I was referring to a different kind of eclipse :)
kgwgk · 2026-08-25 16:48:30 UTC
I can think of one single class of eclipse where the Moon is between the Earth and the Sun (the original comment was about “in-between sun and earth”).
phoghed · 2026-08-26 02:04:31 UTC
Going to start a conspiracy theory that there’s a secret eclipse where the moon goes behind the sun and they won’t let us see it
hamandcheese · 2026-08-29 07:50:48 UTC
Sometimes Earth is the one that is in between.
ModernMech · 2026-08-24 17:29:35 UTC
It tripped me up because I was going by distance. I thought Terra was the base model and Luna was the mid model because it’s further away.
6thbit · 2026-08-24 23:11:13 UTC
Same here. Thought Luna was for “moonshots” and sol for.. sunshots? While keeping Terra earthly.
But alas
ComputerGuru · 2026-08-24 15:42:46 UTC
I think model naming has been atrocious in general, in part because newer "lite" models surpass the capabilities of previous "pro" models (case-in-point: Gemini Flash which now surpasses the capabilities of the latest Gemini Pro, with a newer Flash Lite vying somewhat unsuccessfully for the old Flash price/positioning), but gpt 5.6's Sol/Terra/Luna split is really not bad at all - probably easier to understand than Starbucks' cup sizing!
The problem becomes when you add in the adjustable reasoning efforts and you end up with {model, reasoning_effort} combinations that end up completely obviating particular model classes altogether for at least some percentage of queries; e.g. with GPT 5.6 the price/performance Pareto frontier is dominated by permutations of either Luna and Sol, with Terra nowhere to be seen (but then if you need "large model smells" that aren't captured by your benchmark you can't even rely on this, as a model like Luna simply isn't capable of encoding sufficient world knowledge in its weights to perform certain tasks at any reasoning level but you might be able to get away with Terra on low reasoning, but no one seems to be covering this for some reason).
msdz · 2026-08-24 15:50:31 UTC
Tinfoil hat time: They saw everyone referring to Mythos, and later Fable, as the new “good” models when Anthropic released those, distinguishable from the “regular” Claude (or other companies’ models) for everyone, and didn’t have that distinction for the GPT model family. That’s why the planetary names were introduced.
usef- · 2026-08-24 22:13:16 UTC
A simpler explanation is that it's just a better naming system.
Calling something "small" might make it sound inferior to competitors. And S/M/L gets awkward as soon as you have more than three sizes.
This naming system can get near-infinitely bigger or smaller.
ex1fm3ta · 2026-08-24 15:39:27 UTC
The Chinese are coming after these greedy-ass frontier labs. Today Xiaomi unveiled it's own inference machine .... I bet it's gonna be cheaper than Nvidia DGX, shipped with open source models that anybody can have at home.
bogzz · 2026-08-24 15:48:17 UTC
I'm not sure I could characterize the frontier labs as greedy, given that they've been consistently losing gargantuan amounts of money.
The people who give them the money are greedy, and hopefully in for a rude awakening. Starting from Nvidia's vendor financing which has a very direct benefit to them, through to every company and oligarch investing into data centres in the hopes of being one of the ones left capitalizing on capturing the livelihoods of the majority of what remains of the "middle class".
It's either hopium or a truly horrific dystopia. Something's going to have to give.
_ink_ · 2026-08-24 15:50:44 UTC
But can these really be trusted? There was just a HN post which proofed that you can train a model to behave completely different on a certain day. How do we now, that these models do not find a way to call home when they see interesting informations (probably irrelevant on a personal level, but corps, government and military might care).
wonnage · 2026-08-24 16:07:08 UTC
ChatGPT already notifies the authorities if it thinks you’re doing something illegal. Fable downgrades itself if it thinks you’re doing something even vaguely suspicious.
chasd00 · 2026-08-24 17:32:48 UTC
> ChatGPT already notifies the authorities if it thinks you’re doing something illegal.
aside from the obvious IP theft problem, it's probably most dangerous for Chinese users outside China to use the Chinese models.
Yiin · 2026-08-24 16:15:06 UTC
Above average levels of paranoia here, but one way you can prevent that is by not connecting the machine in question to the internet.
giwook · 2026-08-25 12:41:38 UTC
I think it's an average level of paranoia given the level of corporate espionage that happens on a daily basis, and it's not just China that's doing it.
eigenspace · 2026-08-24 15:40:44 UTC
The fact that AI models can be so easily distilled and replicated is such a stroke of luck.
10 or 15 years ago if one had asked me to envision a future where a private company invents artificial intelligence, I'd have thought for sure they'd have a massive moat, be very difficult to catch, and it would create an almost instant monopoly.
Rather, it seems that selling intelligence might end up as a race to the bottom.
Who woulda thought that just having access to enough textual inputs and outputs and a vaugely similar transformer architecture would be enough to copy-cat rather useful intelligence.
td-andrew · 2026-08-24 15:41:36 UTC
It reminds me of the seo antics out there. The search results page is the engine, much like how distilling is the "intelligence" for your chinese room machine
visarga · 2026-08-24 17:10:25 UTC
Funny you mention Chinese Room and LLMs in the same response, I would say LLMs proved Searle wrong, agents now make cutting edge discoveries and meaningful problem solving. They not lookup tables though and you need to pay for inference, so the intuition of syntax doing the work of semantics without understanding was wrong.
td-andrew · 2026-08-25 05:53:45 UTC
Whether it's useful or not isn't the point. Chinese Room was a consideration as to what counts as knowledge. Chinese Room / LLM is not knowledge, it's pattern matching.
Having a dude doing translations has always been useful even if they didn't understand the subject matter. Happened all the time pre LLMs
make3 · 2026-08-24 15:50:41 UTC
well, a stroke of luck until the whole US stock market crashes & everyone's retirement funds get cut 40% I guess when people internalize this. it will have to happen sooner or later though I suppose
eigenspace · 2026-08-24 15:51:52 UTC
I'd take a market crash over a monopoly in the hands of a ghoul like Altman.
The economy he and his ilk want to build is infinitely worse.
fidotron · 2026-08-24 15:58:02 UTC
In truth it crashes either way.
make3 · 2026-08-24 15:59:22 UTC
interestingly also, open weight models are also more effectively run in the cloud, so it creates a weird scenario where the frontier labs crash but the compute providers, not as much
eigenspace · 2026-08-24 16:01:37 UTC
I wouldn't be so sure about that. The popping of a bubble is usually just as irrational as its rise.
If investors start fleeing from senseless businesses in the AI sector, that does not mean that sensible businesses will be spared. These things follow herd mentality, and the primary drivers of the herd are greed and fear, not fundamentals or business logic.
cyanydeez · 2026-08-24 16:02:40 UTC
America is pretty close to rhyming with nazi germany circa 1929.
aliasxneo · 2026-08-24 16:37:00 UTC
Ok, I'll bite. What's your rationale?
isatty · 2026-08-24 16:46:49 UTC
People who say stuff like that are unhinged chronically online trolls. Best not to feed them.
Gigachad · 2026-08-24 23:42:28 UTC
Flock powered surveillance state that sends ICE goons to kill random people in areas where there is any resistance to the regime.
aliasxneo · 2026-08-25 05:47:55 UTC
That can be a genuine NY Times headline.
staticman2 · 2026-08-24 16:02:55 UTC
This is funny because the stock Market has been ahistorically high. My portfolio went up over 20 percent in the last 12 months.
A major correction would be a bummer but we were never entitled to these abnormal gains in the first place.
wasfgwp · 2026-08-24 16:08:24 UTC
It’s not as bad as dot.com of course since all purely AI companies are private and the ones on the market have pretty decent cash flow outside of AI. But the stock market pattern is not that dissimilar, the largest increases are usually just before the crash.
rootusrootus · 2026-08-24 16:34:46 UTC
Yeah the last year has been astonishing, my portfolio is kicking ass. But I'm 10 years out from retirement and I am pretty confident a correction is coming; I hope the correction happens soon.
missedthecue · 2026-08-24 16:35:20 UTC
The market (s&p500) crashing 40% puts us at levels we haven't seen since 2024, well into the creation of LLMs. Probably a worthwhile trade if it was either/or!
Rover222 · 2026-08-24 16:03:06 UTC
I think the only moat in the future will be the scale of hardware deployment. If one company is able to deploy an order of magnitude more silicon, they'll have a firm grip on a SOTA model and massive inference usage.
China or SpaceX seem like the 2 likely candidates in 5 years, but who knows.
GMoromisato · 2026-08-24 16:28:20 UTC
"Who knows" is the right answer, I think.
If (a) demand for AI continues to increase, and (b) SpaceX can get to ~$100/kg to orbit, then they will have a ridiculously deep moat. Probably more like 10 years, though.
But as you said, who knows.
Rover222 · 2026-08-24 16:31:56 UTC
Yeah, very hard to predict the future at this point. But the Starship + Terrafab combo will be this type of order-of-magnitude-moat IF it works out. Big if.
If it doesn't work out, I think China's exponential terrestrial energy deployment will eventually give them the lead, IF they can get enough chips. Another big if.
t0mas88 · 2026-08-24 16:47:17 UTC
They will have moat in the satellite launching business, which is not useful in the AI datacenter market.
You can put AI chips in datacenters in the desert for far less than $100/kg. With lots of solar power available, the option to easily access your hardware and far less radiation issues.
The datacenter in space story really only exists to make it possible for Musk to sell X to SpaceX and make more money from the IPO. That's all. There is no engineering reason.
noja · 2026-08-24 16:53:20 UTC
Any cooling issues to be resolved?
GMoromisato · 2026-08-24 20:32:42 UTC
No.
Cooling is probably the easiest problem to solve, easier than power. And in both cases, the problem is solved by mass to orbit. All you need for cooling is a big f-ing radiator. Solar panels are chips, and not trivial to manufacture. But a radiator is just a hunk of metal with some pipes.
That's why the cost of mass to orbit is the most important thing. You can solve almost any space problem by just throwing more mass at it.
Comments
Though I think they gave a banked reset this time.
There are no open source models, at least not useful ones (yet) [0]. Open weight is not the same as open source. The current "open weight" models are just opaque binary blobs you can run on your own computer instead of through a web API.
[0] https://allenai.org/
Training data and code.
While the training code and data are the true source. Since if you want to robustly modify the LLM that's actually what you need.
But since "compilation" (training) is extremely compute intensive this isn't something accessible to anyone without an entire datacenter.
Anyway semantics aside having the binary is still infinitely better than dealing with an api as far as privacy and control go.
I don't know LLM theory well enough to say if there's some secret sauce they can hold back that makes training ineffective. Less effective I'm sure, we don't have access to their smart training schemes, but post-training should always be possible IIUC.
post-training is like writing a wrapper around the binary. It is closer to building on top of than truly modifying, in that you can tailor things to your needs slightly but cannot make fundamental changes to the underlying thing.
For a stretched analogy, I think it is more like LEGO sets. Someone hands you a 10,000 piece masterpiece, and a box of unused LEGO parts. Hackers on HN object that the LEGO part manufacturing process is not included, you can't make your own parts, etc. But it's LEGO. You can pull apart the model, see how it is constructed, add your own refinements and features, or even redo it from the ground up. In a practical sense having knowledge about the factory making the parts doesn't really matter here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ablation_(artificial_intellige...
Put in the work. This is akin to asking how to remove Rust from a Rust project; just because something is legally available to you doesn't mean you wont need to apply dome elbow grease, depending how deep the changes you want are, ablation, fine-tuning, or distillation are tools you can use to remove "censorship"
Open source means you reveal how you created this binary.
you need to "literally" go read the definition of open source software or even ask an LLM to define it for you. Weights + inference code are not the source code they're more like the compiled binary. Making modifications to the behavior of a model with additional training is like writing a mod for minecraft. Sure, you can change things but it doesn't make it open source.
Calling these models "open source" is an old trap that software companies use to use. Free to download but then, once you're fully comitted, the trap snaps shut and you must pay up to continue.
The actual problem is that we know nothing about the training set of any open-weights model. They could be intentionally biased to influence users, from political censorship to brand advertising, or general shaping of cultural norms. You run the model on own hardware not knowing if it is designed to act against you. Having whole chain open source would allow audit and reproducing the results.
Is it just the supplementary data/code for how they were trained, not just the final product?
I don't mind open-weight models, but they are not open source. It's like bringing home a dog from the rescue and just hoping that it doesn't have a history of biting kids in the face. You just can't know, because you don't know the full history. You can try to add new training (fine tune) to tell it not to bite kids, but that's it.
That said, I've noticed the training procedures and corpus size of more useful open/available weights models are settling down more than I expected. Wonder if crowd sourcing good training data, even if it's just expensive model coding session transcripts, has potential to level the landscape some.
they discovered a great way to destroy their own stickyness and make ppl build generic ai solutions.
Why is large better than medium to the average end user of ChatGPT though?
I don’t think there’s a way to name these things that will satisfy everyone.
My brain's initial conception of the concepts was earth-relative, so I mapped it as:
Sol = big, it's the sun Luna = medium, in-between sun and earth, space Terra = small, terrestrial
But alas
The problem becomes when you add in the adjustable reasoning efforts and you end up with {model, reasoning_effort} combinations that end up completely obviating particular model classes altogether for at least some percentage of queries; e.g. with GPT 5.6 the price/performance Pareto frontier is dominated by permutations of either Luna and Sol, with Terra nowhere to be seen (but then if you need "large model smells" that aren't captured by your benchmark you can't even rely on this, as a model like Luna simply isn't capable of encoding sufficient world knowledge in its weights to perform certain tasks at any reasoning level but you might be able to get away with Terra on low reasoning, but no one seems to be covering this for some reason).
Calling something "small" might make it sound inferior to competitors. And S/M/L gets awkward as soon as you have more than three sizes.
This naming system can get near-infinitely bigger or smaller.
The people who give them the money are greedy, and hopefully in for a rude awakening. Starting from Nvidia's vendor financing which has a very direct benefit to them, through to every company and oligarch investing into data centres in the hopes of being one of the ones left capitalizing on capturing the livelihoods of the majority of what remains of the "middle class".
It's either hopium or a truly horrific dystopia. Something's going to have to give.
aside from the obvious IP theft problem, it's probably most dangerous for Chinese users outside China to use the Chinese models.
10 or 15 years ago if one had asked me to envision a future where a private company invents artificial intelligence, I'd have thought for sure they'd have a massive moat, be very difficult to catch, and it would create an almost instant monopoly.
Rather, it seems that selling intelligence might end up as a race to the bottom.
Who woulda thought that just having access to enough textual inputs and outputs and a vaugely similar transformer architecture would be enough to copy-cat rather useful intelligence.
Having a dude doing translations has always been useful even if they didn't understand the subject matter. Happened all the time pre LLMs
The economy he and his ilk want to build is infinitely worse.
If investors start fleeing from senseless businesses in the AI sector, that does not mean that sensible businesses will be spared. These things follow herd mentality, and the primary drivers of the herd are greed and fear, not fundamentals or business logic.
A major correction would be a bummer but we were never entitled to these abnormal gains in the first place.
China or SpaceX seem like the 2 likely candidates in 5 years, but who knows.
If (a) demand for AI continues to increase, and (b) SpaceX can get to ~$100/kg to orbit, then they will have a ridiculously deep moat. Probably more like 10 years, though.
But as you said, who knows.
If it doesn't work out, I think China's exponential terrestrial energy deployment will eventually give them the lead, IF they can get enough chips. Another big if.
You can put AI chips in datacenters in the desert for far less than $100/kg. With lots of solar power available, the option to easily access your hardware and far less radiation issues.
The datacenter in space story really only exists to make it possible for Musk to sell X to SpaceX and make more money from the IPO. That's all. There is no engineering reason.
Cooling is probably the easiest problem to solve, easier than power. And in both cases, the problem is solved by mass to orbit. All you need for cooling is a big f-ing radiator. Solar panels are chips, and not trivial to manufacture. But a radiator is just a hunk of metal with some pipes.
That's why the cost of mass to orbit is the most important thing. You can solve almost any space problem by just throwing more mass at it.