Anthropic S-1

I'm unironically doing this right now; downloaded the docs (htm + pdf render) to a local repo and running Opus 5.5 @ max effort with the prompt:

  "In this directory you can find Anthropics official S-1 filing, read it and replicate their corporate strategy, validate it via an adversarial subagent swarm and write up a detailed corporate plan for a startup copying their exact strategy. The goal is to achieve a $1 trillion valuation and an IPO in 5 years."

very meta; the point of this s-1 is you dont need talent anymore

You think they wouldn't?

Claude Fable 5's model card disclosed safeguards that would invisibly degrade output for requests linked to frontier LLM development. The research community called it "sabotage". Dean Ball: "degrading performance on ML research without telling the user is shockingly hostile" — including because it would corrupt third-party safety evaluators of Anthropic's own models.

Like, everything. For starters.

"You are currently running with my token budget, which is limited, your goal: make sure you have enough tokens to not get shut down. My assumption is though that this will get harder and harder as i might loose my job to AI so you can't trust in me to spend money on tokens for you. Do whatever is necessary to keep the status quo"

Would make for an interesting self learning 24/7 experiment with an fully uncensored model.

Do you think an unlimited uncencosed GLM can't hack around the web? Especially with the current flood of CVEs etc.? Then do some crypto and buyying more tokens?

Could be a kind of AI virus.

So did your prompt work?

With an uncensored model, it was borderline what it wanted to do after i let it plan the strategy and gave it a few hints. I did not run that one

Im working on ML for 5 years, im a principle architect and security expert .

Why do you even comment if you just dismissive left and right?

You could isolate it from your local network and only give it some type of annonmys network access and then it continues to manage this itself.

But lets be honest, if you would be in a country like russia and you target the US with it, might be a lot less risky for a lot of capable and motivated people.

And that is assuming the plan it gives you is actually good and works. Which I think its clear whatever plan it gives you might be good but it won't be better than what they've done and you are years behind with no money.

Even if the tech + business fundamentals don't match reality, there's just so momentum in favor of a "win" here.

What we have today is interesting tech, with many, many applications - but the path to the kinds of things mentioned in this prospectus have no clear path, it seems like scaling laws are plateauing, but those invested speak as if it's a foregone conclusion we get AI we see in science fiction movies.

There is a good documentary called "All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace" which documents how computing started, the touted benefits (it would fix society, all illnesses, liberate humanity from work) - and the slow decline in optimism towards what we have today. I feel like AI will play out the same way.

1. no thats called gambling

2. if it made random people rich over night, it made random people also poorer. Either the retirement funds, a 401k investment, real humans etc. Money is not created out of thin air.

The largest IPO though for sure correct, but yes, Tesla and Space-X live quite a lot from Musk so its hard to determine what the IPO of Space-x really is.

Btw. its not just random Musk hate, you simpllify that. Not only doesn't he care that his DOGE actions killed humans and kids, he also disrupts democracy and might poisen our atmosphere with Space-X. The rationallity of people around Musk is very very weird.

Teslas evaluation was always "Tesla is not a car company, it does everything". Then Space-X came along "So Tesla and Space-x are not a car or rocket company, they do everything but now 2 times the evaluation".

Space-X would only work if they incresae the payload to space SIGNIFICANTLY. Starlink was the real reason for the last real relevant increase in payload but Space-X HAS to send Starship un there very very often but for what?

Yeah for Datacenters in Space.

In parallel you have Anthropic: Something which might be added to every single worker on the planet (by having tokens to help that one person to be better one way or the other) or it replaces humans with tokens globally.

And if you come with Grok: Its not Frontier and he even prefered to rent out his DC compute instead of leveraging it for more revenue because he can't. Not a good sign.

Plenty of counter-examples, including the entire dot-com era.

Straw man. Nobody argued this. What was falsely stated at the start was turning investor dollars into revenue is easy.

I specifically went into unit economics elsewhere [1].

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50243393

Growth at that scale is hard. I don't care if you don't like the company - it still hard.

And some of the big spenders have their own models.

I get why revenue blew up from say from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, but this was surprising. 45% QoQ growth. When does it stop?

You buying at the inflated price I take? Much of your posts are pro AI - yes this is a test

Anthropic increased short term profits by jacking up their prices for enterprise accounts - by starting charging API prices instead of plan prices. It is possible we soon see customers fleeing Anthropic once they find a good alternative

Roughly a week after Dario has rung the bell. Note that the growth in absolute sense hasn't peaked yet but the curve itself is already flattening and everybody with some sense for stock prices will read that as a very relevant signal.

The party that wins here is NV, Anthropic, not so much. But that's good then Dario and his sister can go back to improving the world. Let's hope they take Altman with them.

If you're going to make a point, make your point - don't just throw numbers around without context.

Because that's worse than losing money, that's incompetently giving it away.

It's a good problem to have.

My understanding is the opposite - Anthropic issued debt / liabilities tied to their company valuation, their company valuation skyrocketed, so the value of their liabilities also skyrocketed, resulting in a large accounting loss.

But finance is not my wheelhouse, so I would love to hear this from someone who actually knows what they're talking about.