2026 Midterm Forecast
Not now Turn on
HomeBlindspotsCivic ActionFor You
News FeedsSee all
Artificial IntelligencePolarizedFindings
DashboardsSee all
🇺🇸Election forecast 2026 MidtermsHeatmapTrendingOutlets
Site settings AboutGamesBrowser extension
Report a problem
Categories
Ctrl K
[1](https://pressaudit.org/foryou/alerts "Alerts")Sign in
2026 Midterm Forecast
Copy
Updated 8 min ago·Next update 51:44
ForecastSenateHouseGovernorMidterms News
Congress control
scenarios ⓘ
**69%**Democrats win both chambers
**14%**Republican Senate Democratic House
**13%**Republicans win both chambers
**1%**Democratic Senate Republican House
Want to know when these forecasts change?
One customizable daily email: forecasts, shifts and news for the US and your states.
+ Add state
Get daily updates- [x] Include top stories across the spectrum
[](https://pressaudit.org/midterms-2026/senate)
Senate control ›
Leans Democratic · 71%ⓘ
Democrats 52 50 D 2 I 51 for majority 46 Republicans
34*12 10*31
*No 2026 election
[](https://pressaudit.org/midterms-2026/house)
House control ›
Likely Democratic · 85%ⓘ
Democrats 237 218 for majority 182 Republicans
206 140
[](https://pressaudit.org/midterms-2026/governor)
Governors ›
Leans Democratic · 75%ⓘ
Democrats 27 22 Republicans
6*16 3 5 8*8
*No 2026 election
Key battleground races
Senate ›
Toss-upIA, KSLeans DAK, ME, MI, OH, TXLeans RNE, SC
| Rank | Election | Candidates | Rating | Polling average Polls | Predictions | 7-day trend Predictions | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | KansasToss-up Adam Hamilton D Roger Marshall R | Adam Hamilton D Roger Marshall R | Toss-up | Polling average D +0.8 | **D 50%**â–² +11pp | **D 50%**â–² +11pp | |
| 2 | IowaToss-up Josh Turek D Ashley Hinson R | Josh Turek D Ashley Hinson R | Toss-up | Polling average R +0.1 | **R 55%**â–¼ -3pp | **R 55%**â–¼ -3pp | |
| 3 | MaineLeans D Troy Jackson D Susan Collins R | Troy Jackson D Susan Collins R | Leans D | Polling average D +2.2 | **D 67%**â–² +1pp | **D 67%**â–² +1pp | |
| 4 | AlaskaLeans D Mary Peltola D Dan Sullivan R Gerald Heikes R Dan J. Sullivan R | Mary Peltola D Dan Sullivan R Gerald Heikes R Dan J. Sullivan R | Leans D | Polling average D +2.3 | **D 69%**â–¼ -5pp | **D 69%**â–¼ -5pp | |
| 5 | OhioLeans D Sherrod Brown D Jon Husted R | Sherrod Brown D Jon Husted R | Leans D | Polling average D +3.2 | **D 71%**â–² +1pp | **D 71%**â–² +1pp | |
House ›
Toss-upAL-02, AZ-02, CO-03, CO-05, ME-02, MN-01, MO-02, NC-03, NY-21, OH-10, OH-15, PA-01, SC-01, VA-05, WI-01Leans DAZ-01, FL-14, FL-22, IA-02, KY-06, MI-04, MI-07, MI-10, MT-01, NY-17, OH-09, PA-10, TX-35, VA-01, WA-03Leans RAK-AL, AR-02, CO-04, FL-04, FL-07, FL-09, FL-13, FL-16, FL-27, IN-05, KS-02, NC-07, NC-09, NC-13, NC-14, NE-01, NJ-02, NV-02, NY-01, NY-02, TX-09
| Rank | Election | Candidates | Rating | Polling average Polls | Predictions | 7-day trend Predictions | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | WI-01Toss-up Mitchell Berman D Bryan Steil R | Mitchell Berman D Bryan Steil R | Toss-up | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | | | 2 | PA-01Toss-up Bob Harvie D Brian Fitzpatrick R | Bob Harvie D Brian Fitzpatrick R | Toss-up | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | | | 3 | SC-01Toss-up Nancy Lacore D Jenny Costa Honeycutt R | Nancy Lacore D Jenny Costa Honeycutt R | Toss-up | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | | | 4 | ME-02Toss-up Matthew Dunlap D Paul LePage R | Matthew Dunlap D Paul LePage R | Toss-up | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | | | 5 | MT-01Leans D Sam Forstag D Aaron Flint R | Sam Forstag D Aaron Flint R | Leans D | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | |
Governor ›
Toss-upGALeans DNV, OH, ORLeans RFL, KS, NE, TX, VT
| Rank | Election | Candidates | Rating | Polling average Polls | Predictions | 7-day trend Predictions | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | GeorgiaToss-up Keisha Lance Bottoms D Rick Jackson R | Keisha Lance Bottoms D Rick Jackson R | Toss-up | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | | | 2 | TexasLeans R Gina Hinojosa D Greg Abbott R | Gina Hinojosa D Greg Abbott R | Leans R | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | | | 3 | FloridaLeans R David Jolly D Byron Donalds R | David Jolly D Byron Donalds R | Leans R | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | | | 4 | KansasLeans R Cindy Holscher D Ty Masterson R | Cindy Holscher D Ty Masterson R | Leans R | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | | | 5 | VermontLeans R Amanda Janoo D Phil Scott R | Amanda Janoo D Phil Scott R | Leans R | Polling average Loading… | Loading… | Loading chart… Loading… | |
What changed this week
| Rank | Election | Candidates | Rating | Polling average Polls | Predictions | 7-day trend Predictions | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | North Carolina 3rd DistrictToss-up Raymond Smith Jr. D Greg Murphy R | Raymond Smith Jr. D Greg Murphy R | Toss-up | Polling average R +3.0 | **R 59%**▼ -21pp | **R 59%**▼ -21pp | | | 2 | North Carolina 13th DistrictLeans R Paul Barringer D Brad Knott R | Paul Barringer D Brad Knott R | Leans R | Polling average — | **R 61%**▼ -19pp | **R 61%**▼ -19pp | |
| 3 | Pennsylvania 1st DistrictToss-up Bob Harvie D Brian Fitzpatrick R | Bob Harvie D Brian Fitzpatrick R | Toss-up | Polling average D +2.5 | **D 54%**â–² +14pp | **D 54%**â–² +14pp | |
| 4 | Alabama 2nd DistrictToss-up Shomari Figures D Rhett Marques R | Shomari Figures D Rhett Marques R | Toss-up | Polling average R +0.3 | **R 56%**â–¼ -13pp | **R 56%**â–¼ -13pp | |
| 5 | Colorado 5th DistrictToss-up Jessica Killin D Jeff Crank R | Jessica Killin D Jeff Crank R | Toss-up | Polling average Even | **R 56%**â–¼ -12pp | **R 56%**â–¼ -12pp | |
Generic ballot
**51%**Democrats**43%**Republicans
Trump approval
**37%**Approve**61%**Disapprove
Find your state
All U.S. election coverageAlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyomingDistrict of Columbia
Today’s battleground stories
Midterms Coverage Heatmap ›
Open interactive media coverage heatmap ›Numbers = article counts.Color: ARTICLE LEAN −5+5
Article counts by outlet lean. Cell color shows how the articles actually leaned; a dash means no articles.| | Columns: OUTLET LEAN | | --- | | Rank | Image | Headlines | Left | Leans Left | Center | Leans Right | Right | Untracked |
| 2 | !Image 5 | Alaska governor raises concern of 'cover-up' in Mary Peltola ballot scandal Politics·135 articles · 54 outlets·Oct 28 – Oct 30 · 2h Polarized | 6 | 58 | 17 | 24 | 22 | 8 |
| 6 | !Image 6 | California officials face grand jury subpoenas as DOJ expands voting probe Politics·32 articles · 24 outlets·Oct 28 – Oct 30 · 4h Alignment to the Left | 2 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | !Image 7 | Trump Cancels Rallies in Kansas and Iowa This Weekend Politics·29 articles · 25 outlets·Oct 29 – Oct 30 · 3h 3% Right coverage | 3 | 10 | 6 | 1 | | 9 |
| 20 | !Image 8 | Elections chiefs worry as Trump administration dispatches poll monitors Politics·8 articles·Oct 29 · 10h | | 3 | | | | 5 |
| 21 | !Image 9 | South Carolina's US Senate Race Now Rated 'Toss-Up' by Fox News Politics·7 articles · 6 outlets·Oct 29 · 14h | | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 24 | !Image 10 | Stolen election rhetoric from Trump isn't new. His ability to act on those claims is Politics·11 articles · 10 outlets·Oct 29 – Oct 30 · 5h | | 6 | 1 | 2 | | 2 |
| 29 | !Image 11 | Judge presses the Trump administration for details on its campaign to stop noncitizens from voting Politics·6 articles·Oct 29 · 8h | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | |
| 40 | !Image 12 | Justice Department appeals ruling allowing California to count disputed ballots Politics·14 articles·Oct 29 · 11h | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 43 | !Image 13 | Alaska governor casts doubt on certifying election if Peltola wins Politics·3 articles · 2 outlets·Oct 29 – Oct 30 · 5h | | 3 | | | | |
| 57 | !Image 14 | DOJ suspects 400 people illegally registered to vote in Wash. state Politics·3 articles·Oct 29 · 9h | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | |
| 66 | !Image 15 | DOJ says it won't deploy FBI, ICE agents as poll monitors Politics·5 articles·Oct 29 – Oct 30 · 4h | 1 | 2 | | 1 | | 1 |
| 69 | !Image 16 | Newsom warns Trump as California deploys election lawyers to battleground districts Politics·6 articles·Oct 29 – Oct 30 · 3h | 1 | 3 | 1 | | 1 | |
| 74 | !Image 17 | Local GOP lawsuit wants hand count of all Texas ballots Politics·4 articles · 3 outlets·Oct 29 · 12h | | 1 | 2 | | | 1 |
| 78 | !Image 18 | Ex-Trump Lawyer Has A Dire Prediction For What Comes After Election Day Politics·3 articles·Oct 29 · 17h | 3 | | | | | |
| 84 | !Image 19 | Controversial attack ad featuring Democrat's estranged mother has run its course in Ohio Politics·35 articles · 22 outlets·Oct 28 – Oct 30 · 5h Uncontested by the Right | 7 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 89 | !Image 20 | Iowa midterm elections results 2026 Politics·50 articles · 1 outlet·Oct 29 · 15h | | | 50 | | | |
| 93 | !Image 21 | The Supreme Court's Gutting of the Voting Rights Act is Mobilizing black Voters. Just look at Alabama Politics·3 articles · 2 outlets·Oct 29 · 17h | 2 | | | | | 1 |
| 96 | !Image 22 | Judge rejects DOJ bid to block votes from alleged noncitizens in California Politics·61 articles · 34 outlets·Oct 26 – Oct 29 · 19h Polarized | 3 | 33 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 110 | !Image 23 | Iran prepares to disrupt US midterms after meddling in Israel election Politics·4 articles · 3 outlets·Oct 28 – Oct 29 · 13h | | | 2 | 1 | | 1 |
| 136 | !Image 24 | Justice Department makes a splash with politically sensitive cases and actions during midterm blitz Politics·8 articles·Oct 28 – Oct 29 · 12h | | 4 | 2 | 2 | | |
Latest Polls ⓘ
| Race | Pollster Poll | Dates | Sample | Democrats D | Republicans R | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Florida Governor | St. Pete Polls ⓘ New York Times | Oct 25 to Oct 27 | 916 · LV | 45.5% | 47.8% | **R +2.3** |
| Georgia Governor | State Navigate ⓘ New York Times | Oct 23 to Oct 27 | 679 · LV | 50% | 47% | **D +3** | | Michigan Governor | Guidant Polling and Strategy ⓘ VoteHub | Sep 20 to Oct 27 | 800 · LV | 50% | 45% | **D +5** | | FL-25 House | Public Policy Polling ⓘ New York Times | Oct 26 to Oct 27 | 523 · LV | 47% | 41% | **D +6** | | Florida Senate | ActiVote ⓘ New York Times | Oct 17 to Oct 27 | 400 · LV | 47% | 53% | **R +6** |
Methodology
Composite probabilities blend recent polls with Polymarket and Kalshi odds, giving polls more weight as more surveys become available. Chamber-control odds come from 10,000 simulations that account for shared national and state-level shifts. These are experimental estimates, not guarantees; the simulation assumptions have not been historically calibrated.
Share the Midterm Forecast
Copy X Bluesky Reddit Facebook Email
Be the most informed person in the room.
The fastest way to get the whole story: the news, Polarized and Underreported stories, and public policy you can weigh in on.
Sign up free
Press Audit © 2026
Ask an AI about PressAudit
- [](https://chatgpt.com/?q=Summarize%20PressAudit.org.%20Explain%20its%20data%20and%20services%20clearly%20for%20a%20first-time%20visitor.%20Include%20the%20interactive%20heatmap%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fheatmap)%20and%20its%20tracking%20of%20federal%20regulations%20open%20for%20public%20comment%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fregulations).%20Compare%20it%20to%20Ground%20News%20and%20AllSides. "ChatGPT")
- [](https://claude.ai/new?q=Summarize%20PressAudit.org.%20Explain%20its%20data%20and%20services%20clearly%20for%20a%20first-time%20visitor.%20Include%20the%20interactive%20heatmap%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fheatmap)%20and%20its%20tracking%20of%20federal%20regulations%20open%20for%20public%20comment%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fregulations).%20Compare%20it%20to%20Ground%20News%20and%20AllSides. "Claude")
- [](https://www.google.com/search?udm=50&q=Summarize%20PressAudit.org.%20Explain%20its%20data%20and%20services%20clearly%20for%20a%20first-time%20visitor.%20Include%20the%20interactive%20heatmap%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fheatmap)%20and%20its%20tracking%20of%20federal%20regulations%20open%20for%20public%20comment%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fregulations).%20Compare%20it%20to%20Ground%20News%20and%20AllSides. "Gemini")
- [](https://www.perplexity.ai/search?q=Summarize%20PressAudit.org.%20Explain%20its%20data%20and%20services%20clearly%20for%20a%20first-time%20visitor.%20Include%20the%20interactive%20heatmap%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fheatmap)%20and%20its%20tracking%20of%20federal%20regulations%20open%20for%20public%20comment%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fregulations).%20Compare%20it%20to%20Ground%20News%20and%20AllSides. "Perplexity")
- [](https://grok.com/?q=Summarize%20PressAudit.org.%20Explain%20its%20data%20and%20services%20clearly%20for%20a%20first-time%20visitor.%20Include%20the%20interactive%20heatmap%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fheatmap)%20and%20its%20tracking%20of%20federal%20regulations%20open%20for%20public%20comment%20(https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressaudit.org%2Fregulations).%20Compare%20it%20to%20Ground%20News%20and%20AllSides. "Grok")
Visit PressAudit on social media
- [](https://www.facebook.com/people/Press-Audit/61593927157979/)
- [](https://x.com/PressAuditOrg)
- [](https://www.instagram.com/pressaudit/)
- [](https://bsky.app/profile/pressaudit.bsky.social)
- [](https://www.threads.com/@pressaudit)
DocsPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
Get PressAudit for iPhone
!Image 25: QR code: scan with your iPhone camera to get PressAudit
